The value of CT-based radiomics in predicting the prognosis of acute pancreatitis.

Purpose: Early judgment of the progress of acute pancreatitis (AP) and timely intervention are crucial to the prognosis of patients. The purpose of this study was to investigate the application value of CT-based radiomics of pancreatic parenchyma in predicting the prognosis of early AP. Materials and methods: This retrospective study enrolled 137 patients diagnosed with AP (95 cases in the progressive group and 42 cases in the non-progressive group) who underwent CT scans. Patients were randomly divided into a training set ( Results: The mRMR algorithm and LASSO regression were used to select 13 radiomics features with high values. The rad-score of each texture feature was calculated to fuse MCTSI to establish the radiomics model, and both the clinical model and clinical-radiomics model were established. The clinical-radiomics model showed the best performance, the AUC and 95% confidence interval, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the clinical-radiomics model in the training set were 0.984 (0.964-1.000), 0.947, 0.955, and 0.931, respectively. In the validation set, they were 0.942 (0.870-1.000), 0.929, 0.966, and 0.846, respectively. The Delong test showed that the predictive efficacy of the clinical-radiomics model was higher than that of the clinical model ( Conclusion: The pancreatic parenchymal CT clinical-radiomics model has high diagnostic efficacy in predicting the progression of early AP patients, which is significantly better than the clinical or radiomics model. The combined model can help identify and determine the progression trend of patients with AP and improve the prognosis and survival of patients as early as possible.