ArticleInfluenza and other respiratory viruses2023
Modeling the impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa.
Article in Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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10 citing papers in PubMed, 16 citations in OpenAlex.
- Shifts in Pediatric Respiratory Virus Trends After the COVID-19 Pandemic: Insights From a 12-Year Hospital-Based Study in South Korea.International journal of pediatrics · 2026Article
- Multiplex serology reveals age-specific immunodynamics of respiratory pathogens in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Contribution of Respiratory Syncytial Virus to Burden of Lower Respiratory Tract Infections: A Global Analysis of 204 Countries and Territories, 1990-2021.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Article
- Scenario Projections of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Hospitalizations Averted Due to New Immunizations.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- Multiplex serology reveals age-specific immunodynamics of endemic respiratory pathogens in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Whole genome molecular analysis of respiratory syncytial virus pre and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Free State province, South Africa.Virus research · 2024Article
- Inhibition, transition, and surge: dynamic evolution of pediatric respiratory pathogen trends amid COVID-19 pandemic policy adjustments.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Modeling the impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2023Article
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11 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.
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Abstract
Background: The South African government employed various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Surveillance data from South Africa indicates reduced circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) throughout the 2020-2021 seasons. Here, we use a mechanistic transmission model to project the rebound of RSV in the two subsequent seasons. Methods: We fit an age-structured epidemiological model to hospitalization data from national RSV surveillance in South Africa, allowing for time-varying reduction in RSV transmission during periods of COVID-19 circulation. We apply the model to project the rebound of RSV in the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Results: We projected an early and intense outbreak of RSV in April 2022, with an age shift to older infants (6-23 months old) experiencing a larger portion of severe disease burden than typical. In March 2022, government alerts were issued to prepare the hospital system for this potentially intense outbreak. We then assess the 2022 predictions and project the 2023 season. Model predictions for 2023 indicate that RSV activity has not fully returned to normal, with a projected early and moderately intense wave. We estimate that NPIs reduced RSV transmission between 15% and 50% during periods of COVID-19 circulation. Conclusions: A wide range of NPIs impacted the dynamics of the RSV outbreaks throughout 2020-2023 in regard to timing, magnitude, and age structure, with important implications in a low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) setting where RSV interventions remain limited. More efforts should focus on adapting RSV models to LMIC data to project the impact of upcoming medical interventions for this disease.
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