ArticleBMJ global health2023
COVID-19 vaccination implementation in 52 African countries: trajectory and implications for future pandemic preparedness.
Article in BMJ global health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines in Botswana: a scoping review.Frontiers in health services · 2025Pooled it
- Next-Generation Vaccines Against Neglected Diseases: New Promises from Genetically Modified Live-Attenuated Parasites and RNA Vaccines.Microorganisms · 2026Review
- Coverage and determinants of COVID-19 vaccination among 36 555 Nigerian women of childbearing age: a mixed-effects analysis of nationally representative data.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Prioritisation and risk ranking of epidemic-prone diseases for emergency preparedness and response in Eastern Africa using a multi-criteria decision analysis framework, 2023.Journal of public health in Africa · 2026Article
- Africa's vaccines manufacturing revolution: Lessons from COVID-19, ongoing efforts, and challenges to overcome.Innovations in pharmacy · 2025Article
- Four Years Since COVID-19 Day Zero: A Time to Evaluate Past and Future Pandemic Control Policies and Practices in Sub-Saharan Africa?Risk management and healthcare policy · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
introductionTo end the COVID-19 pandemic, the WHO set a goal in 2021 to fully vaccinate 70% of the global population by mid-2022. We projected the COVID-19 vaccination trajectory in 52 African countries and compared the projected to the 'actual' or 'observed' coverage as of December 2022. We also estimated the required vaccination speed needed to have attained the WHO 70% coverage target by December 2022.
methodsWe obtained publicly available, country-reported daily COVID-19 vaccination data, covering the initial 9 months following the deployment of vaccines. We used a deterministic compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-type model and fit the model to the number of COVID-19 cases and vaccination coverage in each African country using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach within a Bayesian framework.
findingsOnly nine of the 52 African countries (Tunisia, Cabo Verde, Lesotho, Mozambique, Rwanda, Seychelles, Morocco, Botswana and Mauritius) were on track to achieve full COVID-19 vaccination coverage rates ranging from 72% to 97% by the end of December 2022, based on their progress after 9 months of vaccine deployment. Of the 52 countries, 26 (50%) achieved 'actual' or 'observed' vaccination coverage rates within ±10 percentage points of their projected vaccination coverage. Among the countries projected to achieve <30% by December 2022, nine of them (Chad, Niger, Nigeria, South Sudan, Tanzania, Somalia, Zambia, Sierra Leone and Côte d'Ivoire) achieved a higher observed coverage than the projected coverage, ranging from 12.3 percentage points in South Sudan to 35.7 percentage points above the projected coverage in Tanzania. Among the 52 countries, 83% (43 out of 52) needed to at least double their vaccination trajectory after 9 months of deployment to reach the 70% target by December 2022.
conclusionOur findings can guide countries in planning strategies for future global health emergencies and learning from each other, especially those that exceeded expectations and made significant progress towards the WHO's 2022 COVID-19 vaccination target despite projected poor coverage rates.
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