Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38081203›Full record

Trial reportThe Lancet. Microbe2024

Demographics of sources of HIV-1 transmission in Zambia: a molecular epidemiology analysis in the HPTN 071 PopART study.

Matthew Hall, Tanya Golubchik, David Bonsall, Lucie Abeler-Dörner, Mohammed Limbada, Barry Kosloff, Ab Schaap, Mariateresa de Cesare, George MacIntyre-Cockett, Newton Otecko and 15 more

Open access · goldAbstract readClinical Trial
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Trial report in The Lancet. Microbe, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
2.7field-weighted citation impact, top 9% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 14 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

25 authors at 10 institutions in 4 countries.

Matthew HallPandemic Sciences Institute and Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Tanya GolubchikPandemic Sciences Institute and Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Sydney Infectious Diseases Institute, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
David BonsallPandemic Sciences Institute and Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Lucie Abeler-DörnerPandemic Sciences Institute and Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Mohammed LimbadaZambart, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.
Barry KosloffZambart, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia; Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Ab SchaapZambart, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.
Mariateresa de CesarePandemic Sciences Institute and Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
George MacIntyre-CockettPandemic Sciences Institute and Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Newton OteckoPandemic Sciences Institute and Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
William ProbertPandemic Sciences Institute and Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Oliver RatmannDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Ana Bulas CruzPandemic Sciences Institute and Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Estelle Piwowar-ManningDepartment of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
David N BurnsDivision of AIDS, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD, USA.
Myron S CohenDepartment of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
Deborah J DonnellFred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Susan H EshlemanDepartment of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Musonda SimwingaZambart, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.
Sarah FidlerDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Richard HayesDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Helen AylesZambart, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia; Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Christophe FraserPandemic Sciences Institute and Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. Electronic address: christophe.fraser@bdi.ox.ac.uk.
HPTN 071 (PopART) Phylogenetics protocol team
PANGEA consortium
University of Oxford · GBUniversity of Zambia · ZMCentre for Human Genetics · GBImperial College London · GBJohns Hopkins University · USNational Institutes of Health · USFred Hutch Cancer Center · USLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBThe University of Sydney · AUUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill · US

Funding

LOC: HIV Prevention Trials NetworkUM1AI068619 · NIAID · FAMILY HEALTH INTERNATIONAL · PI Sinead Delany-Moretlwe, RAPHAEL J LANDOVITZ · 2011 to 2026
$779.5M
SDMC: HPTN 084 Pregnancy SupplementUM1AI068617 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Elizabeth Renata Brown, Deborah J Donnell · 2011 to 2026
$204.9M
LC: HIV Prevention Trials Network - Laboratory Support for the SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence Study (CoVPN 5002)UM1AI068613 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI SUSAN H ESHLEMAN, Mark A Marzinke · 2011 to 2026
$100.2M
Medical Research Council MC_UU_00033/1Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI068613NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI068617NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI068619
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIn the last decade, universally available antiretroviral therapy (ART) has led to greatly improved health and survival of people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, but new infections continue to appear. The design of effective prevention strategies requires the demographic characterisation of individuals acting as sources of infection, which is the aim of this study.

methodsBetween 2014 and 2018, the HPTN 071 PopART study was conducted to quantify the public health benefits of ART. Viral samples from 7124 study participants in Zambia were deep-sequenced as part of HPTN 071-02 PopART Phylogenetics, an ancillary study. We used these sequences to identify likely transmission pairs. After demographic weighting of the recipients in these pairs to match the overall HIV-positive population, we analysed the demographic characteristics of the sources to better understand transmission in the general population.

findingsWe identified a total of 300 likely transmission pairs. 178 (59·4%) were male to female, with 130 (95% CI 110-150; 43·3%) from males aged 25-40 years. Overall, men transmitted 2·09-fold (2·06-2·29) more infections per capita than women, a ratio peaking at 5·87 (2·78-15·8) in the 35-39 years source age group. 40 (26-57; 13·2%) transmissions linked individuals from different communities in the trial. Of 288 sources with recorded information on drug resistance mutations, 52 (38-69; 18·1%) carried viruses resistant to first-line ART.

interpretationHIV-1 transmission in the HPTN 071 study communities comes from a wide range of age and sex groups, and there is no outsized contribution to new infections from importation or drug resistance mutations. Men aged 25-39 years, underserved by current treatment and prevention services, should be prioritised for HIV testing and ART.

fundingNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute on Drug Abuse, and National Institute of Mental Health.

Indexed as

HIV-1HIV InfectionsHIV SeropositivityAdultDemographyFemaleHumansMaleMolecular EpidemiologyUnited StatesZambia

Identifiers

PMID38081203
PMCPMC10789608
OpenAlexW4389473250

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.