ArticleWorld journal of gastroenterology2023
Time series analysis-based seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average to estimate hepatitis B and C epidemics in China.
Article in World journal of gastroenterology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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6 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- Spatiotemporal patterns and 2025 forecasting of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Beijing, China: a 21-year population-based study (2004-2024).BMC public health · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and influencing factors of hepatitis B in China: a 17-year national surveillance analysis.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Trends and forecasting of reported hepatitis B and hepatitis C incidence in Hainan Province, China, 2005-2020.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2026Article
- Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Epidemiology and SARIMA model of deaths in a tertiary comprehensive hospital in Hangzhou from 2015 to 2022.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Statistical machine learning models for prediction of China's maritime emergency patients in dynamic: ARIMA model, SARIMA model, and dynamic Bayesian network model.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
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6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
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Abstract
backgroundHepatitis B (HB) and hepatitis C (HC) place the largest burden in China, and a goal of eliminating them as a major public health threat by 2030 has been set. Making more informed and accurate forecasts of their spread is essential for developing effective strategies, heightening the requirement for early warning to deal with such a major public health threat.
aimTo monitor HB and HC epidemics by the design of a paradigmatic seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (SARFIMA) for projections into 2030, and to compare the effectiveness with the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA).
methodsMonthly HB and HC incidence cases in China were obtained from January 2004 to June 2023. Descriptive analysis and the Hodrick-Prescott method were employed to identify trends and seasonality. Two periods (from January 2004 to June 2022 and from January 2004 to December 2015, respectively) were used as the training sets to develop both models, while the remaining periods served as the test sets to evaluate the forecasting accuracy.
resultsThere were incidents of 23400874 HB cases and 3590867 HC cases from January 2004 to June 2023. Overall, HB remained steady [average annual percentage change (AAPC) = 0.44, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): -0.94-1.84] while HC was increasing (AAPC = 8.91, 95%CI: 6.98-10.88), and both had a peak in March and a trough in February. In the 12-step-ahead HB forecast, the mean absolute deviation (15211.94), root mean square error (18762.94), mean absolute percentage error (0.17), mean error rate (0.15), and root mean square percentage error (0.25) under the best SARFIMA (3, 0, 0) (0, 0.449, 2)
conclusionUnder current interventions, China faces enormous challenges to eliminate HB and HC epidemics by 2030, and effective strategies must be reinforced. The integration of SARFIMA into public health for the management of HB and HC epidemics can potentially result in more informed and efficient interventions, surpassing the capabilities of SARIMA.
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