Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38070927›Full record

SynthesisBMJ open2023

Predictive value of machine learning on fracture risk in osteoporosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Yanqian Wu, Jianqian Chao, Min Bao, Na Zhang

Abstract readMeta-AnalysisSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in BMJ open, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  14. Bridging the gap: enhancing osteoporosis management through AI-driven predictive models.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2025
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  16. Optimizing patient outcomes post-glucocorticoid therapy: a call for enhanced monitoring and preventive care.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Yanqian WuKey Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering of Ministry of Education/Health Management Research Center, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.ORCID 0000-0002-0421-6111
Jianqian ChaoKey Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering of Ministry of Education/Health Management Research Center, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China chaoseu@163.com.
Min BaoKey Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering of Ministry of Education/Health Management Research Center, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
Na ZhangKey Laboratory of Environmental Medicine Engineering of Ministry of Education/Health Management Research Center, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesEarly identification of fracture risk in patients with osteoporosis is essential. Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a promising technique to predict the risk, whereas its predictive performance remains controversial. Therefore, we conducted this systematic review and meta-analysis to explore the predictive efficiency of ML for the risk of fracture in patients with osteoporosis.

methodsRelevant studies were retrieved from four databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Web of Science) until 31 May 2023. A meta-analysis of the C-index was performed using a random-effects model, while a bivariate mixed-effects model was used for the meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity. In addition, subgroup analysis was performed according to the types of ML models and fracture sites.

resultsFifty-three studies were included in our meta-analysis, involving 15 209 268 patients, 86 prediction models specifically developed for the osteoporosis population and 41 validation sets. The most commonly used predictors in these models encompassed age, BMI, past fracture history, bone mineral density T-score, history of falls, BMD, radiomics data, weight, height, gender and other chronic diseases. Overall, the pooled C-index of ML was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.78) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.78) in the training set and validation set, respectively; the pooled sensitivity was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.84) and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.80, 0.81) in the training set and validation set, respectively; and the pooled specificity was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.75, 0.86) and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.90) in the training set and validation set, respectively.

conclusionsML has a favourable predictive performance for fracture risk in patients with osteoporosis. However, most current studies lack external validation. Thus, external validation is required to verify the reliability of ML models. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022346896.

Indexed as

OsteoporosisOsteoporotic FracturesBone DensityHumansReproducibility of ResultsRisk AssessmentFracturesMachine learningMeta-AnalysisOsteoporosis

Identifiers

PMID38070927
PMCPMC10728980

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.