Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38066590›Full record

ArticleBMC health services research2023

Projected impact of population aging on non-communicable disease burden and costs in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2020-2030.

David C Boettiger, Tracy Kuo Lin, Maram Almansour, Mariam M Hamza, Reem Alsukait, Christopher H Herbst, Nada Altheyab, Ayman Afghani, Faisal Kattan

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In one paragraph

Article in BMC health services research, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  4. The Societal and Economic Burden of COPD in Saudi Arabia.Global journal on quality and safety in healthcare · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

David C BoettigerInstitution for Health and Aging, University of California, San Francisco, CA, 94158, USA. dboettiger@kirby.unsw.edu.au.
Tracy Kuo LinInstitution for Health and Aging, University of California, San Francisco, CA, 94158, USA.
Maram AlmansourThe Ministry of Economy and Planning, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Mariam M HamzaNutrition and Population Global Practice, World Bank, Washington, D.C, USA.
Reem AlsukaitCommunity Health Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Christopher H HerbstNutrition and Population Global Practice, World Bank, Washington, D.C, USA.
Nada AltheyabThe Ministry of Economy and Planning, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Ayman AfghaniThe Ministry of Economy and Planning, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Faisal KattanThe Ministry of Economy and Planning, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Funding

The Ministry of Economy and Planning, Saudi Arabia and the Health, Nutrition and Population Reimbursable Advisory Services Program between the World Bank and the Ministry of Finance in Saudi Arabia P172148
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe number of people aged greater than 65 years per 100 people aged 20-64 years is expected to almost double in The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) between 2020 and 2030. We therefore aimed to quantify the growing non-communicable disease (NCD) burden in KSA between 2020 and 2030, and the impact this will have on the national health budget.

methodsTen priority NCDs were selected: ischemic heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, dementia, depression, osteoarthritis, colorectal cancer, and breast cancer. Age- and sex-specific prevalence was projected for each priority NCD between 2020 and 2030. Treatment coverage rates were applied to the projected prevalence estimates to calculate the number of patients incurring treatment costs for each condition. For each priority NCD, the average cost-of-illness was estimated based on published literature. The impact of changes to our base-case model in terms of assumed disease prevalence, treatment coverage, and costs of care, coming into effect from 2023 onwards, were explored.

resultsThe prevalence estimates for colorectal cancer and stroke were estimated to almost double between 2020 and 2030 (97% and 88% increase, respectively). The only priority NCD prevalence projected to increase by less than 60% between 2020 and 2030 was for depression (22% increase). It is estimated that the total cost of managing priority NCDs in KSA will increase from USD 19.8 billion in 2020 to USD 32.4 billion in 2030 (an increase of USD 12.6 billion or 63%). The largest USD value increases were projected for osteoarthritis (USD 4.3 billion), diabetes (USD 2.4 billion), and dementia (USD 1.9 billion). In scenario analyses, our 2030 projection for the total cost of managing priority NCDs varied between USD 29.2 billion - USD 35.7 billion.

conclusionsManaging the growing NCD burden in KSA's aging population will require substantial healthcare spending increases over the coming years.

Indexed as

Colorectal NeoplasmsDementiaDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2Noncommunicable DiseasesOsteoarthritisStrokeAgedAgingCost of IllnessFemaleHealth Care CostsHumansMaleSaudi ArabiaAgingCostsNon-communicable DiseaseSaudi Arabia

Identifiers

PMID38066590
PMCPMC10709902

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.