Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38060225›Full record

ArticleJAMA network open2023

Global Burden of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Through 2050.

Elroy Boers, Meredith Barrett, Jason G Su, Adam V Benjafield, Sanjeev Sinha, Leanne Kaye, Heather J Zar, Vy Vuong, Daniela Tellez, Rahul Gondalia and 4 more

3 registry-linked trialsAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in JAMA network open, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 3 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 416 papers, 19 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
416citing papers in PubMed, 19 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT06514599 completednot on this map

Comparison of The Efficacy of CRP, Procalcitonin and Pro-BNP as Diagnostic and Prognostic Markers in AECOPD

Typeobservational_patient_registrySponsorKanuni Sultan Suleyman Training and Research HospitalRan2023 to 2024Enrolled196ConditionsCOPD Exacerbation Acute
NCT07402850 nacompletednot on this mapstarted 2025, after this paper: background citation

Oscillating Positive Expiratory Pressure Therapy Versus Autogenic Drainage in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Effects on Pulmonary Function, Sputum Clearance, Dyspnea, and Quality of Life

TypeinterventionalSponsorAdnan HashimRan2025 to 2025Enrolled58ConditionsChronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Airway ClearanceArmsOscillating Positive Expiratory Pressure Therapy, Autogenic Drainage
NCT07749001 phase4not yet recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2026, after this paper: background citation

Airway Dysfunction, Occlusions and RemodEling: COPD Patients and Mepolizumab (ADORE)

TypeinterventionalSponsorWestern University, CanadaRan2026 to 2028Enrolled36ConditionsCOPD (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease)ArmsMepolizumab 100 MG Injection
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

416 citing papers in PubMed, 19 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  5. RuralEuropean respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2026
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  12. Definitions of early COPD and predictors for disease progression: a systematic review.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2026
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  13. International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2026
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  20. Trial

356 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Elroy BoersResMed Science Center, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.
Meredith BarrettResMed Science Center, San Diego, California.
Jason G SuUniversity of California, Berkeley.
Adam V BenjafieldResMed Science Center, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Sanjeev SinhaAll India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India.
Leanne KayeResMed Science Center, San Diego, California.
Heather J ZarDepartment of Paediatrics and Child Health and SA-MRC Unit on Child & Adolescent Health, University of Cape Town, South Africa.
Vy VuongResMed Science Center, San Diego, California.
Daniela TellezResMed Science Center, San Diego, California.
Rahul GondaliaResMed Science Center, San Diego, California.
Mary B RiceDivision of Pulmonary, Sleep and Critical Care Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts.
Carlos M NunezResMed Science Center, San Diego, California.
Jadwiga A WedzichaThe National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College, United Kingdom.
Atul MalhotraUniversity of California, San Diego, La Jolla.

Funding

Is Obstructive Sleep Apnea Important in the Development of Alzheimer's DiseaseR01AG063925 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI MALHOTRA, ATUL · 2020 to 2024
$3.7M
Underlying mechanisms of obesity-induced obstructive sleep apneaR01HL148436 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI Atul Malhotra · 2020 to 2026
$3.4M
Sleep Apnea Endophenotypes: One Size Does Not Fit AllR01HL154926 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI MALHOTRA, ATUL · 2021 to 2025
$3.3M
The cardiovascular consequences of sleep apnea plus COPD (Overlap syndrome)R01HL166485 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI Atul Malhotra · 2023 to 2026
$3.1M
VentNet: A Real-Time Multimodal Data Integration Model for Prediction of Respiratory Failure in Patients with COVID-19R01HL157985 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI MALHOTRA, ATUL, NEMATI, SHAMIM · 2022 to 2025
$2.9M
Training in the Next Generation in Respiratory ScienceT32HL134632 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI MALHOTRA, ATUL, POWELL, FRANK L. · 2017 to 2021
$2.1M
NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL148436NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL154926NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL157985NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL166485NHLBI NIH HHS T32 HL134632NIA NIH HHS R01 AG063925
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Importance: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a respiratory condition that is associated with significant health and economic burden worldwide. Previous studies assessed the global current-day prevalence of COPD, but to better facilitate resource planning and intervention development, long-term projections are needed. Objective: To assess the global burden of COPD through 2050, considering COPD risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this modeling study, historical data on COPD prevalence was extracted from a recent meta-analysis on 2019 global COPD prevalence, and 2010 to 2018 historical prevalence was estimated using random-effects meta-analytical models. COPD risk factor data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease database. Main Outcomes and Measures: To project global COPD prevalence to 2050, generalized additive models were developed, including smoking prevalence, indoor and outdoor air pollution, and development indices as predictors, and stratified by age, sex, and World Bank region. Results: The models estimated that the number of COPD cases globally among those aged 25 years and older will increase by 23% from 2020 to 2050, approaching 600 million patients with COPD globally by 2050. Growth in the burden of COPD was projected to be the largest among women and in low- and middle-income regions. The number of female cases was projected to increase by 47.1% (vs a 9.4% increase for males), and the number of cases in low- and middle-income regions was expected to be more than double that of high-income regions by 2050. Conclusions and Relevance: In this modeling study of future COPD burden, projections indicated that COPD would continue to affect hundreds of millions of people globally, with disproportionate growth among females and in low-middle income regions through 2050. Further research, prevention, and advocacy are needed to address these issues so that adequate preparation and resource allocation can take place.

Indexed as

Air PollutionPulmonary Disease, Chronic ObstructiveRespiration DisordersFemaleHumansMalePrevalenceSmoking

Identifiers

PMID38060225
PMCPMC10704283

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.