ArticleScientific reports2023
Development of a nomogram to predict survival in advanced biliary tract cancer.
Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 3 citations in OpenAlex.
- Clinical Prognostic Factors and Survival Risk Stratification for Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer Treated with Gemcitabine-Based Palliative Chemotherapy: A Real-World Retrospective Study.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Comparison of clinical features by primary site in patients with biliary tract cancer who received gemcitabine-based chemotherapy: an exploratory analysis of JCOG1113.International journal of clinical oncology · 2025Article
- Postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy and chemoimmunotherapy after radical resection for biliary tract cancer: a retrospective study.The oncologist · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
20 authors at 17 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The prognosis of advanced biliary tract cancer (BTC) patients remains poor due to limited efficacy of chemotherapy and difficulties in management. Thus, prediction of survival is crucial for the clinical management of advanced BTC. The aim was to develop and validate a nomogram to predict 6-month and 12-month survival in advanced BTC patients treated with chemotherapy. A multivariable Cox regression model was used to construct a nomogram in a training set (JCOG1113, a phase III trial comparing gemcitabine plus S-1 [GS] and gemcitabine plus cisplatin, n = 351). External validity of the nomogram was assessed using a test set (JCOG0805, a randomized, phase II trial comparing GS and S-1 alone, n = 100). Predictive performance was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration. The constructed nomogram included lymph node metastasis, liver metastasis, carbohydrate antigen 19-9, carcinoembryonic antigen, albumin, and C-reactive protein. Uno's concordance index was 0.661 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.629-0.696) in the training set and 0.640 (95% CI 0.566-0.715) in the test set. The calibration plots for 6-month and 12-month survival showed good agreement in the two analysis sets. The present nomogram can facilitate prediction of the prognosis of advanced BTC patients treated with chemotherapy and help clinicians' prognosis-based decision-making.
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