ArticleHospital pediatrics2024
Development and Temporal Validation of a Machine Learning Model to Predict Clinical Deterioration.
Article in Hospital pediatrics, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 5 citations in OpenAlex.
- Technical Approaches to Predicting Acute Deterioration in Pediatric Inpatients: Protocol for a Scoping Review.JMIR research protocols · 2026Article
- From scores to signals: evolution and innovations in pediatric early warning systems.Acute and critical care · 2026Article
- An Introduction to Machine Learning for the Pediatric Hospitalist.Hospital pediatrics · 2026Review
- Effective reduction of unnecessary biopsies through a deep-learning-assisted aggressive prostate cancer detector.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Automatic sequence identification in multicentric prostate multiparametric MRI datasets for clinical machine-learning.Insights into imaging · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
15 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesEarly warning scores detecting clinical deterioration in pediatric inpatients have wide-ranging performance and use a limited number of clinical features. This study developed a machine learning model leveraging multiple static and dynamic clinical features from the electronic health record to predict the composite outcome of unplanned transfer to the ICU within 24 hours and inpatient mortality within 48 hours in hospitalized children.
methodsUsing a retrospective development cohort of 17 630 encounters across 10 388 patients, 2 machine learning models (light gradient boosting machine [LGBM] and random forest) were trained on 542 features and compared with our institutional Pediatric Early Warning Score (I-PEWS).
resultsThe LGBM model significantly outperformed I-PEWS based on receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the composite outcome of ICU transfer or mortality for both internal validation and temporal validation cohorts (AUROC 0.785 95% confidence interval [0.780-0.791] vs 0.708 [0.701-0.715] for temporal validation) as well as lead-time before deterioration events (median 11 hours vs 3 hours; P = .004). However, LGBM performance as evaluated by precision recall curve was lesser in the temporal validation cohort with associated decreased positive predictive value (6% vs 29%) and increased number needed to evaluate (17 vs 3) compared with I-PEWS.
conclusionsOur electronic health record based machine learning model demonstrated improved AUROC and lead-time in predicting clinical deterioration in pediatric inpatients 24 to 48 hours in advance compared with I-PEWS. Further work is needed to optimize model positive predictive value to allow for integration into clinical practice.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.