ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2023
Population age and household structures shape transmission dynamics of emerging infectious diseases: a longitudinal microsimulation approach.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 12 citations in OpenAlex.
- A scoping review of COVID-19 modelling studies in Belgium 2020-2024: incorporation of behaviour and lessons learned.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Pooled it
- Role-specific household contact patterns in urban and rural China: Implications for influenza household transmission.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2027Article
- Article
- The Role of Youths in Within-Household Tuberculosis Transmission: A Household Contact Cohort Study.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026Article
- Human Health Risk Assessment of Informal Slaughter by Small-Scale Farmers in Gauteng Province, South Africa, Focusing onVeterinary medicine international · 2026Article
- Relationship between household attributes and contact patterns in urban and rural South Africa.PloS one · 2026Article
- The pathogen spectrum of influenza-like illness in Guilin, China, 2023-2024.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Identification of age-group reservoirs for persistent vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage in rural Gambia.Pneumonia (Nathan Qld.) · 2025Article
- Patterns and drivers of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 13 Western European countries.BMC global and public health · 2024Article
- Population age and household structures shape transmission dynamics of emerging infectious diseases: a longitudinal microsimulation approach.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- Exploring the impact of population ageing on the spread of emerging respiratory infections and the associated burden of mortality.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Host population demographics and patterns of host-to-host interactions are important drivers of heterogeneity in infectious disease transmission. To improve our understanding of how population structures and changes therein influence disease transmission dynamics at the individual and population level, we model a dynamic age- and household-structured population using longitudinal microdata drawn from Belgian census and population registers. At different points in time, we simulate the spread of a close-contact infectious disease and vary the age profiles of infectiousness and susceptibility to reflect specific infections (e.g. influenza and SARS-CoV-2) using a two-level mixing model, which distinguishes between exposure to infection in the household and exposure in the community. We find that the strong relationship between age and household structures, in combination with social mixing patterns and epidemiological parameters, shape the spread of an emerging infection. Disease transmission in the adult population in particular is to a large degree explained by differential household compositions and not just household size. Moreover, we highlight how demographic processes alter population structures in an ageing population and how these in turn affect disease transmission dynamics across population groups.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.