ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2023
Fundamental bound on epidemic overshoot in the SIR model.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Identifiability in Epidemic Models with Prior Immunity and Under-Reporting.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Modeling the transmission dynamics of Mpox virus.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Coupling plankton and cholera dynamics: Insights into outbreak prediction and practical disease management.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- The complex interplay between risk tolerance and the spread of infectious diseases.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Fundamental bound on epidemic overshoot in the SIR model.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
We derive an exact upper bound on the epidemic overshoot for the Kermack-McKendrick SIR model. This maximal overshoot value of 0.2984 · · · occurs at [Formula: see text]. In considering the utility of the notion of overshoot, a rudimentary analysis of data from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Manaus, Brazil highlights the public health hazard posed by overshoot for epidemics with
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