Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38052974›Full record

ArticleNature microbiology2024

Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda.

Mélodie Monod, Andrea Brizzi, Ronald M Galiwango, Robert Ssekubugu, Yu Chen, Xiaoyue Xi, Edward Nelson Kankaka, Victor Ssempijja, Lucie Abeler-Dörner, Adam Akullian and 27 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature microbiology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

37 authors.

Mélodie Monod *Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6448-2051
Andrea Brizzi *Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5639-8260
Ronald M Galiwango *Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda.ORCID 0000-0003-3702-5722
Robert Ssekubugu *Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda.
Yu Chen *Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-7528-2298
Xiaoyue Xi *Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Edward Nelson Kankaka *Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6977-3405
Victor Ssempijja *Clinical Monitoring Research Program Directorate, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick, MD, USA.
Lucie Abeler-DörnerBig Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Adam AkullianBill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA.
Alexandra BlenkinsopDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-2328-8671
David BonsallWellcome Centre for Human Genomics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Larry W ChangRakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda.
Shozen DanDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Christophe FraserBig Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2399-9657
Tanya GolubchikBig Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2765-9828
Ronald H GrayDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Matthew HallBig Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-2671-3864
Jade C JacksonDepartment of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Godfrey KigoziRakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda.
Oliver LaeyendeckerDivision of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6429-4760
Lisa A MillsDivision of Global HIV and TB, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Kampala, Uganda.
Thomas C QuinnDepartment of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Steven J ReynoldsRakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda.
John SantelliPopulation and Family Health and Pediatrics, Columbia Mailman School of Public Health, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2768-1910
Nelson K SewankamboCollege of Health Sciences, School of Medicine, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda.
Simon E F SpencerDepartment of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8375-5542
Joseph SsekasanvuDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Laura ThomsonBig Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Maria J WawerRakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda.
David SerwaddaRakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda.
Peter Godfrey-FaussettDepartment of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5929-9524
Joseph KagaayiRakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda. jkagayi@rhsp.org.ORCID 0000-0003-4101-3038
M Kate GrabowskiRakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda. mgrabow2@jhu.edu.
Oliver RatmannDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK. oliver.ratmann@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-8667-4118
Rakai Health Sciences Program
PANGEA-HIV consortium

Funding

Vaccine Response and Immunotherapeutics SWGP30AI094189 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI Richard E. Chaisson · 2012 to 2026
$67.0M
The Johns Hopkins University - Uganda Clinical Trials UnitUM1AI069530 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI MARY Glenn Fowler, Philippa Musoke · 2012 to 2026
$34.8M
International Center for Excellence in Research (ICER) in Uganda: Impact of ARVsZIAAI001040 · NIAID · NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES · PI REYNOLDS, STEVEN · 2009 to 2025
$23.5M
International Studies of the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS)ZIAAI000361 · NIAID · NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES · PI REDD, ANDREW · 2009 to 2025
$15.8M
Circumcision: HIV/STIs and behaviors in a RCT and post-RCT surveillance; RakaiU01AI075115 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI GRAY, RONALD H · 2007 to 2011
$9.3M
Male Circumcision Trial for HIV Prevention, Rakai-UgandaU01AI051171 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI GRAY, RONALD H · 2002 to 2006
$8.9M
Epidemiology and Impact of the HIV, NCD, and Urbanization Syndemic in AfricaR01HL152813 · NHLBI · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI CHANG, LARRY WILLIAM · 2021 to 2025
$7.8M
ARV effects on HIV epidemiology &behaviors Rakai UgandaR01HD050180 · NICHD · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI WAWER, MARIA J · 2005 to 2009
$7.8M
Scaling up a family strengthening EBP to reduce child disruptive behavior problems in SSAU19MH110001 · NIMH · WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY · PI MCKAY, MARY MCKERNAN · 2016 to 2020
$3.9M
Structural and Social Transitions Among Adolescents in Rakai (SSTAR)R01HD091003 · NICHD · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI SANTELLI, JOHN S. · 2017 to 2021
$3.7M
The role of penile bacteria and inflammation in HIV susceptibility; Rakai, UgandaR01AI123002 · NIAID · GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY · PI LIU, CINDY · 2016 to 2020
$3.3M
Enhanced Provision of Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention, Rakai, UgandaU01AI100031 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI GRAY, RONALD H · 2012 to 2014
$3.2M
FIC NIH HHS D43 TW009578FIC NIH HHS D43 TW010557Intramural NIH HHS ZIA AI001040NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL152813NIAAA NIH HHS K01 AA024068NIAID NIH HHS K01 AI125086NIAID NIH HHS K25 AI114461NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI094189NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI087409NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI110324NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI114438NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI123002NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI128779NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI143333NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI155080NIAID NIH HHS R21 AI145682NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI051171NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI075115NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI100031NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI069530NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD050180NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD070769NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD091003NIMH NIH HHS F31 MH095649NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH099733NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH107275NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH115799NIMH NIH HHS U19 MH110001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep-sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted: whereas HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one-third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programmes to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.

Indexed as

HIV InfectionsAgedCohort StudiesFemaleGenomicsHumansIncidenceMaleUganda

Identifiers

PMID38052974
PMCPMC10769880

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.