Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38050171›Full record

ArticleSexually transmitted infections2024

Modelling the impact of vaccination and sexual behaviour adaptations on mpox cases in the USA during the 2022 outbreak.

Patrick A Clay, Jason M Asher, Neal Carnes, Casey E Copen, Kevin P Delaney, Daniel C Payne, Emily D Pollock, Jonathan Mermin, Yoshinori Nakazawa, William Still and 2 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Sexually transmitted infections, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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  17. Factors potentially contributing to the decline of the mpox outbreak in the Netherlands, 2022 and 2023.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024
    Observational
  18. Scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men: a modelling study based on cross-sectional seroprevalence data from the Netherlands, 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Patrick A ClayDivision of STD Prevention, National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA ruq9@cdc.gov.ORCID 0000-0002-3491-9985
Jason M AsherOffice of the Director, Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Neal CarnesDivision of HIV Prevention, National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Casey E CopenDivision of STD Prevention, National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8354-0464
Kevin P DelaneyDivision of HIV Prevention, National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Daniel C PayneDivision of Foodborne, Waterborne & Environmental Diseases, National Center for Emerging & Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Emily D PollockDivision of STD Prevention, National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Jonathan MerminOffice of the Director, National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Yoshinori NakazawaDivision of HIV Prevention, National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
William StillDC Department of Health, Washington, District of Columbia, USA.
Anil T ManglaDC Department of Health, Washington, District of Columbia, USA.
Ian H SpicknallDivision of STD Prevention, National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.

Funding

Intramural CDC HHS CC999999
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe 2022 mpox outbreak has infected over 30 000 people in the USA, with cases declining since mid-August. Infections were commonly associated with sexual contact between men. Interventions to mitigate the outbreak included vaccination and a reduction in sexual partnerships. Understanding the contributions of these interventions to decreasing cases can inform future public health efforts.

methodsWe fit a dynamic network transmission model to mpox cases reported by Washington DC through 10 January 2023. This model incorporated both vaccine administration data and reported reductions in sexual partner acquisition by gay, bisexual or other men who have sex with men (MSM). The model output consisted of daily cases over time with or without vaccination and/or behavioural adaptation.

resultsWe found that initial declines in cases were likely caused by behavioural adaptations. One year into the outbreak, vaccination and behavioural adaptation together prevented an estimated 84% (IQR 67% to 91%) of cases. Vaccination alone averted 79% (IQR 64% to 88%) of cases and behavioural adaptation alone averted 25% (IQR 10% to 42%) of cases. We further found that in the absence of vaccination, behavioural adaptation would have reduced the number of cases, but would have prolonged the outbreak.

conclusionsWe found that initial declines in cases were likely caused by behavioural adaptation, but vaccination averted more cases overall and was key to hastening outbreak conclusion. Overall, this indicates that outreach to encourage individuals to protect themselves from infection was vital in the early stages of the mpox outbreak, but that combination with a robust vaccination programme hastened outbreak conclusion.

Indexed as

Mpox, MonkeypoxSexual and Gender MinoritiesDisease OutbreaksHomosexuality, MaleHumansMaleSexual BehaviorVaccinationModels, TheoreticalSexual BehaviorVACCINATION

Identifiers

PMID38050171
PMCPMC11323315

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.