Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38045771›Full record

ArticleGates open research2022

Regional clustering and waves patterns due to COVID-19 by the index virus and the lambda/gamma, and delta/omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants in Peru.

Melissa Toyama, Lucía Vargas, Sofía Ticliahuanca, Antonio M Quispe

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Gates open research, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Melissa ToyamaFacultad de Medicina Humana, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima, Lima, 15001, Peru.
Lucía VargasFacultad de Derecho y Ciencia Política, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima, Lima, Peru.
Sofía TicliahuancaFacultad de Derecho y Ciencia Política, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima, Lima, Peru.
Antonio M QuispeFacultad de Medicina Humana, Universidad Continental, Huancayo, Junin, 12000, Peru.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2100-7423

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) impact varies substantially due to various factors, so it is critical to characterize its main differences to inform decision-makers about where to focus their interventions and differentiate mitigation strategies. Up to this date, little is known about the patterns and regional clustering of COVID-19 waves worldwide. Methods: We assessed the patterns and regional clustering of COVID-19 waves in Peru by using the weekly mortality rates for each of the 25 regions as an outcome of interest. We obtained the death counts from the National Informatics System of Deaths and population estimates from the National Registry of Identification and Civil Status. In addition, we characterized each wave according to its duration, peak, and mortality rates by age group and gender. Additionally, we used polynomial regression models to compare them graphically and performed a cluster analysis to identify regional patterns. Results: We estimated the average mortality rate at the first, second, and third waves at 13.01, 14.12, and 9.82 per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively, with higher mortality rates among elders and men. The patterns of each wave varied substantially in terms of duration, peak, impact, and wave shapes. Based on our clustering analysis, during the first wave caused by the index virus, the 25 regions of Peru presented six different wave patterns. However, the regions were clustered in two different wave patterns during the second and third, caused by alpha/lambda/delta and omicron. Conclusions: The propagation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) variants behaved in Peru with varying wave patterns and regional clustering. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the weekly mortality rates followed different spatiotemporal patterns with solid clustering, which might help project the impact of future waves of COVID-19.

Indexed as

cluster analysisCOVID-19epidemiologymortalityPeruSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID38045771
PMCPMC10692151

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.