Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38036854›Full record

ArticleNature methods2024

AlphaFold predictions are valuable hypotheses and accelerate but do not replace experimental structure determination.

Thomas C Terwilliger, Dorothee Liebschner, Tristan I Croll, Christopher J Williams, Airlie J McCoy, Billy K Poon, Pavel V Afonine, Robert D Oeffner, Jane S Richardson, Randy J Read and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature methods, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 202 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
202citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

202 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  3. Review
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  5. The "synthetic validity" problem in AI-generated science.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
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  14. Review
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142 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Thomas C TerwilligerNew Mexico Consortium, Los Alamos, NM, USA. tterwilliger@newmexicoconsortium.org.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6384-0320
Dorothee LiebschnerMolecular Biophysics & Integrated Bioimaging Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3921-3209
Tristan I CrollDepartment of Haematology, Cambridge Institute for Medical Research, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3514-8377
Christopher J WilliamsDepartment of Biochemistry, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5808-8768
Airlie J McCoyDepartment of Haematology, Cambridge Institute for Medical Research, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Billy K PoonMolecular Biophysics & Integrated Bioimaging Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Pavel V AfonineMolecular Biophysics & Integrated Bioimaging Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Robert D OeffnerDepartment of Haematology, Cambridge Institute for Medical Research, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Jane S RichardsonDepartment of Biochemistry, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3311-2944
Randy J ReadDepartment of Haematology, Cambridge Institute for Medical Research, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8273-0047
Paul D AdamsMolecular Biophysics & Integrated Bioimaging Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9333-8219

Funding

PROJECT 5 - DUKE - STRUCTURE VALIDATION AND IMPROVEMENT FOR PROTEINS AND N. ACIDSP01GM063210 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIF-LAWRENC BERKELEY LAB · PI ADAMS, PAUL DAVID · 2001 to 2021
$33.5M
NIGMS NIH HHS P01 GM063210Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Artificial intelligence-based protein structure prediction methods such as AlphaFold have revolutionized structural biology. The accuracies of these predictions vary, however, and they do not take into account ligands, covalent modifications or other environmental factors. Here, we evaluate how well AlphaFold predictions can be expected to describe the structure of a protein by comparing predictions directly with experimental crystallographic maps. In many cases, AlphaFold predictions matched experimental maps remarkably closely. In other cases, even very high-confidence predictions differed from experimental maps on a global scale through distortion and domain orientation, and on a local scale in backbone and side-chain conformation. We suggest considering AlphaFold predictions as exceptionally useful hypotheses. We further suggest that it is important to consider the confidence in prediction when interpreting AlphaFold predictions and to carry out experimental structure determination to verify structural details, particularly those that involve interactions not included in the prediction.

Indexed as

Artificial IntelligenceMental ProcessesCrystallographyProtein Conformation

Identifiers

PMID38036854
PMCPMC10776388

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.