Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38036664›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2023

Development of postoperative delirium prediction models in patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery using machine learning algorithms.

Chie Nagata, Masahiro Hata, Yuki Miyazaki, Hirotada Masuda, Tamiki Wada, Tasuku Kimura, Makoto Fujii, Yasushi Sakurai, Yasuko Matsubara, Kiyoshi Yoshida and 3 more

Erratum issuedOpen access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 19 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
5.1field-weighted citation impact, top 3% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 24 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Chie NagataDivision of Health Sciences, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, 1-7 Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka, 565-0871, Japan. nagatachie1994@sahs.med.osaka-u.ac.jp.
Masahiro HataDepartment of Psychiatry, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Osaka, Japan.
Yuki MiyazakiDepartment of Psychiatry, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Osaka, Japan.
Hirotada MasudaDepartment of Cardiovascular Surgery, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Osaka, Japan.
Tamiki WadaDepartment of Psychiatry, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Osaka, Japan.
Tasuku KimuraSANKEN (The Institution of Scientific and Industrial Research), Osaka University, Ibaraki, Osaka, Japan.
Makoto FujiiDivision of Health Sciences, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, 1-7 Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka, 565-0871, Japan.
Yasushi SakuraiSANKEN (The Institution of Scientific and Industrial Research), Osaka University, Ibaraki, Osaka, Japan.
Yasuko MatsubaraSANKEN (The Institution of Scientific and Industrial Research), Osaka University, Ibaraki, Osaka, Japan.
Kiyoshi YoshidaDivision of Health Sciences, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, 1-7 Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka, 565-0871, Japan.
Shigeru MiyagawaDepartment of Cardiovascular Surgery, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Osaka, Japan.
Manabu IkedaDepartment of Psychiatry, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Osaka, Japan.
Takayoshi UenoDivision of Health Sciences, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, 1-7 Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka, 565-0871, Japan.
The University of Osaka · JPOsaka Research Institute of Industrial Science and Technology · JP

Funding

JSPS KAKENHI JP22K10839
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Associations between delirium and postoperative adverse events in cardiovascular surgery have been reported and the preoperative identification of high-risk patients of delirium is needed to implement focused interventions. We aimed to develop and validate machine learning models to predict post-cardiovascular surgery delirium. Patients aged ≥ 40 years who underwent cardiovascular surgery at a single hospital were prospectively enrolled. Preoperative and intraoperative factors were assessed. Each patient was evaluated for postoperative delirium 7 days after surgery. We developed machine learning models using the Bernoulli naive Bayes, Support vector machine, Random forest, Extra-trees, and XGBoost algorithms. Stratified fivefold cross-validation was performed for each developed model. Of the 87 patients, 24 (27.6%) developed postoperative delirium. Age, use of psychotropic drugs, cognitive function (Mini-Cog < 4), index of activities of daily living (Barthel Index < 100), history of stroke or cerebral hemorrhage, and eGFR (estimated glomerular filtration rate) < 60 were selected to develop delirium prediction models. The Extra-trees model had the best area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.76 [standard deviation 0.11]; sensitivity: 0.63; specificity: 0.78). XGBoost showed the highest sensitivity (AUROC, 0.75 [0.07]; sensitivity: 0.67; specificity: 0.79). Machine learning algorithms could predict post-cardiovascular delirium using preoperative data.Trial registration: UMIN-CTR (ID; UMIN000049390).

Indexed as

Emergence DeliriumActivities of Daily LivingAlgorithmsBayes TheoremHumansMachine LearningRetrospective Studies

Identifiers

PMID38036664
PMCPMC10689441
OpenAlexW4389201124

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.