ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2023
Wastewater surveillance provides 10-days forecasting of COVID-19 hospitalizations superior to cases and test positivity: A prediction study.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 33 citations in OpenAlex.
- Wastewater Surveillance to Track Resurgent Measles Outbreak, Ontario, Canada, 2025.Emerging infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Correlation of Norovirus in Wastewater with Gastroenteritis-Related Hospitalizations, New York, USA, 2022-2024.Emerging infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Wastewater Measures of SARS-CoV-2 Accurately Predict Frequency of Symptomatic Infections in the Community.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Observational
- Wastewater as an early indicator for short-term forecasting COVID-19 hospitalization in Germany.BMC public health · 2025Article
- How local health departments use wastewater surveillance data for public health planning and intervention in New York State.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Identifying real time surveillance indicators to estimate COVID-19 hospital admissions in Colorado during and after the public health emergency.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Machine Learning-Driven COVID-19 Hospitalization Forecasting: From Theory to Practice in a Major Northeastern Academic Medical Center.Open forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
- The potential of long-term wastewater-based surveillance to predict COVID-19 waves peak in Mexico.Water environment research : a research publication of the Water Environment Federation · 2025Article
- City-wide built environment SARS-CoV-2 detection for COVID-19 surveillance.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Wastewater analysis of chemical markers of public health concern at small spatial scales: A scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- The value of environmental surveillance for pandemic response.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Online dashboards for SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based epidemiology.Future microbiology · 2024Review
- The National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS): From inception to widespread coverage, 2020-2022, United States.The Science of the total environment · 2024Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
15 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: The public health response to COVID-19 has shifted to reducing deaths and hospitalizations to prevent overwhelming health systems. The amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA fragments in wastewater are known to correlate with clinical data including cases and hospital admissions for COVID-19. We developed and tested a predictive model for incident COVID-19 hospital admissions in New York State using wastewater data. Methods: Using county-level COVID-19 hospital admissions and wastewater surveillance covering 13.8 million people across 56 counties, we fit a generalized linear mixed model predicting new hospital admissions from wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from April 29, 2020 to June 30, 2022. We included covariates such as COVID-19 vaccine coverage in the county, comorbidities, demographic variables, and holiday gatherings. Findings: Wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA correlated with new hospital admissions per 100,000 up to ten days prior to admission. Models that included wastewater had higher predictive power than models that included clinical cases only, increasing the accuracy of the model by 15%. Predicted hospital admissions correlated highly with observed admissions (r = 0.77) with an average difference of 0.013 hospitalizations per 100,000 (95% CI = [0.002, 0.025]). Interpretation: Using wastewater to predict future hospital admissions from COVID-19 is accurate and effective with superior results to using case data alone. The lead time of ten days could alert the public to take precautions and improve resource allocation for seasonal surges.
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