Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38019858›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2023

Variability in excess deaths across countries with different vulnerability during 2020-2023.

John P A Ioannidis, Francesco Zonta, Michael Levitt

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

John P A IoannidisDepartment of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.ORCID 0000-0003-3118-6859
Francesco ZontaDepartment of Biological Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong Liverpool University, Suzhou 215123, China.ORCID 0000-0001-8729-1071
Michael LevittDepartment of Structural Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.ORCID 0000-0002-8414-7397

Funding

Emergent Properties of Complex Systems: From Atoms to Macromolecules; from Humans to SocietiesR35GM122543 · NIGMS · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI MICHAEL LEVITT · 2017 to 2026
$5.1M
NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM122543
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Excess deaths provide total impact estimates of major crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated excess death trajectories across countries with accurate death registration and population age structure data and assessed relationships with vulnerability indicators. Using the Human Mortality Database on 34 countries, excess deaths were calculated for 2020-2023 (to week 29, 2023) using 2017-2019 as reference, with adjustment for 5 age strata. Countries were divided into less and more vulnerable; the latter had per capita nominal GDP < $30,000, Gini > 0.35 for income inequality and/or at least ≥2.5% of their population living in poverty. Excess deaths (as proportion of expected deaths, p%) were inversely correlated with per capita GDP (

Indexed as

COVID-19PandemicsAdolescentChildChild, PreschoolHumansIncomeInfantInfant, NewbornPovertybiasCOVID-19demographymortality

Identifiers

PMID38019858
PMCPMC10710037

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.