Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38001154›Full record

ArticleNPJ digital medicine2023

An explainable machine learning-based phenomapping strategy for adaptive predictive enrichment in randomized clinical trials.

Evangelos K Oikonomou, Phyllis M Thangaraj, Deepak L Bhatt, Joseph S Ross, Lawrence H Young, Harlan M Krumholz, Marc A Suchard, Rohan Khera

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ digital medicine, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

27 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. The potential of artificial intelligence in clinical trials.European journal of clinical investigation · 2026
    Review
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Solving the 'Goldilocks problem' in dementia clinical trials with multimodal AI.The journal of prevention of Alzheimer's disease · 2025
    Article
  8. Review
  9. Review
  10. Review
  11. Review
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Review
  17. Review
  18. Artificial Intelligence in Cardiovascular Clinical Trials.Journal of the American College of Cardiology · 2024
    Review
  19. Article
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Evangelos K OikonomouSection of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.
Phyllis M ThangarajSection of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.
Deepak L BhattMount Sinai Heart, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai Health System, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1278-6245
Joseph S RossSection of General Internal Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9218-3320
Lawrence H YoungSection of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.
Harlan M KrumholzSection of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2046-127X
Marc A SuchardDepartments of Computational Medicine and Human Genetics, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Rohan KheraSection of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA. rohan.khera@yale.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9467-6199

Funding

Insulin Resistance Intervention after Stroke TrialU01NS044876 · NINDS · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI KERNAN, WALTER N · 2004 to 2013
$73.6M
Evaluating and Improving Utilization of Evidence-Based Medical Therapy in Patients with Heart Failure using Automated Tools in the Electronic Health RecordK23HL153775 · NHLBI · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI KHERA, ROHAN · 2021 to 2025
$918k
A multi-modal approach for efficient, point-of-care screening of hypertrophic cardiomyopathyF32HL170592 · NHLBI · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI OIKONOMOU, EVANGELOS · 2023 to 2024
$166k
NHLBI NIH HHS F32 HL170592NHLBI NIH HHS K23 HL153775NINDS NIH HHS U01 NS044876
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Randomized clinical trials (RCT) represent the cornerstone of evidence-based medicine but are resource-intensive. We propose and evaluate a machine learning (ML) strategy of adaptive predictive enrichment through computational trial phenomaps to optimize RCT enrollment. In simulated group sequential analyses of two large cardiovascular outcomes RCTs of (1) a therapeutic drug (pioglitazone versus placebo; Insulin Resistance Intervention after Stroke (IRIS) trial), and (2) a disease management strategy (intensive versus standard systolic blood pressure reduction in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT)), we constructed dynamic phenotypic representations to infer response profiles during interim analyses and examined their association with study outcomes. Across three interim timepoints, our strategy learned dynamic phenotypic signatures predictive of individualized cardiovascular benefit. By conditioning a prospective candidate's probability of enrollment on their predicted benefit, we estimate that our approach would have enabled a reduction in the final trial size across ten simulations (IRIS: -14.8% ± 3.1%, p

Identifiers

PMID38001154
PMCPMC10673945

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.