ArticleRMD open2023
Development and external validation of a prediction model for venous thromboembolism in systemic lupus erythematosus.
Article in RMD open, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 8 citations in OpenAlex.
- Venous thromboembolism in China: epidemiology, management strategies, and future directions.Research and practice in thrombosis and haemostasis · 2026Review
- Comparison of aspirin and rivaroxaban for the prevention of pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis in high thrombotic risk patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: study protocol for a multicentre, prospective, randomised controlled trial.Lupus science & medicine · 2026Article
- Comprehensive analysis of predictive models for disease manifestations and case fatality in systemic lupus erythematosus.NPJ digital medicine · 2026Review
- Development and internal validation of a clinical prediction model for venous thromboembolism in patients with renal insufficiency.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Analysis on the causes of unsatisfactory prevention effect of postpartum VTE in Chinese women.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Application of artificial intelligence in risk assessment and management of venous thromboembolism: scoping review.Frontiers in physiology · 2025Review
- The risk profiles of pregnancy-related cerebral venous thrombosis: a retrospective study in a comprehensive hospital.BMC neurology · 2024Article
- Systemic lupus in the era of machine learning medicine.Lupus science & medicine · 2024Review
- Quantifying Lupus Anticoagulant Interference in Intrinsic Coagulation Factor Activity Assays and Evaluating the Corrective Performance of the SCT-Based Method.Clinical and applied thrombosis/hemostasis : official journal of the International Academy of Clinical and Applied Thrombosis/HemostasisArticle
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
25 authors at 13 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivePatients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) have an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We conducted this study to develop a risk score algorithm for VTE in patients with SLE that provides individualised risk estimates.
methodsWe developed a clinical prediction model of VTE in 4502 patients with SLE based on the Chinese SLE Treatment and Research group cohort (CSTAR) from January 2009 to January 2020 and externally validated in 3780 patients with SLE in CSTAR from January 2020 to January 2022. Baseline data were obtained and VTE events were recorded during the follow-up. The prediction model was developed to predict VTE risk within 6 months in patients with SLE, using multivariate logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. SLE-VTE score and nomogram were established according to the model.
resultsA total of 4502 patients included in the development cohort, 135 had VTE events. The final prediction model (SLE-VTE score) included 11 variables: gender, age, body mass index, hyperlipidaemia, hypoalbuminaemia, C reactive protein, anti-β2GPI antibodies, lupus anticoagulant, renal involvement, nervous system involvement and hydroxychloroquine, with area under the curve of 0.947 and 0.808 in the development (n=4502) and external validation cohort (n=3780), respectively. According to the net benefit and predicted probability thresholds, we recommend annual screening of VTE in high risk (≥1.03%) patients with SLE.
conclusionVarious factors are related to the occurrence of VTE in patients with SLE. The proposed SLE-VTE risk score can accurately predict the risk of VTE and help identify patients with SLE with a high risk of VTE who may benefit from thromboprophylaxis.
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