ArticleEnvironmental health perspectives2023
Projections of Temperature-Related Suicide under Climate Change Scenarios in Japan.
Article in Environmental health perspectives, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Projections of dengue epidemics attributable to climate change in Peru.BMJ global health · 2026Article
- Projection of temperature-related severe injuries under climate change: a nationwide study of South Korea.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Temporal variation in the association between heatwave and mortality from mental disorders: population-based evidence from a megacity of China.Journal of global health · 2025Article
- Association between climate related hazards and depression among coastal communities in Indonesia.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Association of ambient temperatures with suicide attempts and violence with the future projections under climate change scenarios: a nationwide time-stratified case-crossover study in South Korea.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Precision cardiovascular medicine: shifting the innovation paradigm.Frontiers in science · 2025Article
- Ambient temperature, suicide, and urbanicity: A nationwide time-stratified case-crossover study in South Korea.PloS one · 2025Article
- Lung cancer in Asia: the impact of climate change.EClinicalMedicine · 2024Review
- Quantification of the Heat-Related Risk and Burden of Hospitalizations for Cause-Specific Injuries and Contribution of Human-Induced Climate Change: A Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Study in China.Environmental health perspectives · 2024Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundThe impact of climate change on mental health largely remains to be evaluated. Although growing evidence has reported a short-term association between suicide and temperature, future projections of temperature-attributable suicide have not been thoroughly examined.
objectivesWe aimed to project the excess temperature-related suicide mortality in Japan under three climate change scenarios until the 2090s.
methodsDaily time series of mean temperature and the number of suicide deaths in 1973-2015 were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan. A two-stage time-stratified case-crossover analysis was used to estimate the temperature-suicide association. We obtained the modeled daily temperature series using five general circulation models under three climate change scenarios from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSPs): SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. We projected the excess temperature-related suicide mortality until 2099 for each scenario and evaluated the net relative changes compared with the 2010s.
resultsDuring 1973-2015, there was a total of 1,049,592 suicides in Japan. Net increases in temperature-related excess suicide mortality were estimated under all scenarios. The net change in 2090-2099 compared with 2010-2019 was 1.3% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 0.6, 2.4] for the intermediate-emission scenario (SSP2-4.5), 0.6% (95% eCI: 0.1, 1.6) for a low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), and 2.4% (95% eCI: 0.7, 3.9) for the extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5). The increases were greater the more extreme the scenarios were, with the highest increase under the most extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5). DISCUSSION: This study indicates that Japan may experience a net increase in excess temperature-related suicide mortality, especially under the intermediate and extreme scenarios. The findings underscore the importance of mitigation policies. Further investigations of the future impacts of climate change on mental health including suicide are warranted. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11246.
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