ArticleBMC public health2023
Application of exponential smoothing method and SARIMA model in predicting the number of admissions in a third-class hospital in Zhejiang Province.
Article in BMC public health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 20 citations in OpenAlex.
- Article
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- Impact of announced wait time information on emergency department overcrowding mitigation: a simulation study.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2026Article
- The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Iodine Nutrition Status of Pregnant Women and Infants/Toddlers: Repeated Cross-Sectional Studies in Zhengzhou, China.Biological trace element research · 2026Article
- Global burden of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease from 1990 to 2021 and the prediction for the next 10 years.Preventive medicine reports · 2025Article
- Analyzing factors affecting tuberculosis incidence in various mainland Chinese economic regions and predicting trends: a comprehensive regression study.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Comparison of SES method and SARIMA model in predicting the number of admissions in the department of neurology.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Observational
- Global burden of diarrhea disease in the older adult and its attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2021: a comprehensive analysis from the global burden of disease study 2021.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Epidemiological trends and incidence prediction of periodontal disease based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2021.Frontiers in dental medicine · 2025Article
- Global burden of ischemic heart disease attributable to dietary factors: insights from the global burden of disease study 2021.Frontiers in nutrition · 2025Article
- Time series forecasting of red blood cell demand in hematology patients using SARIMA and exponential smoothing models: a retrospective analysis in a Chinese tertiary hospital.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Epidemiology and SARIMA model of deaths in a tertiary comprehensive hospital in Hangzhou from 2015 to 2022.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Statistical machine learning models for prediction of China's maritime emergency patients in dynamic: ARIMA model, SARIMA model, and dynamic Bayesian network model.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo establish the exponential smoothing prediction model and SARIMA model to predict the number of inpatients in a third-class hospital in Zhejiang Province, and evaluate the prediction effect of the two models, and select the best number prediction model.
methodsThe data of hospital admissions from January 2019 to September 2022 were selected to establish the exponential smoothing prediction model and the SARIMA model respectively. Then compare the fitting parameters of different models: R
resultsThe best fitting exponential smoothing prediction model was Winters Addition model, whose R
conclusionBoth models can better fit the number of admissions, and SARIMA model has better prediction effect.
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