Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37989228›Full record

ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2023

Parameter estimation for contact tracing in graph-based models.

Augustine Okolie, Johannes Müller, Mirjam Kretzschmar

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Parameter estimation for contact tracing in graph-based models.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Augustine OkolieCenter for Mathematical Sciences, Technische Universität München, 85748 Garching, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-8684-1358
Johannes MüllerCenter for Mathematical Sciences, Technische Universität München, 85748 Garching, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-5892-8598
Mirjam KretzschmarUniversity Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, 3584CX Utrecht, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-4394-7697

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We adopt a maximum-likelihood framework to estimate parameters of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on a rooted random tree. Given the number of detectees per index case, our estimator allows to determine the degree distribution of the random tree as well as the tracing probability. Since we do not discover all infectees via contact tracing, this estimation is non-trivial. To keep things simple and stable, we develop an approximation suited for realistic situations (contract tracing probability small, or the probability for the detection of index cases small). In this approximation, the only epidemiological parameter entering the estimator is

Indexed as

Contact TracingCOVID-19Computer SimulationHumansIndiaProbabilitybranching processcontact tracingepidemiologyparameter inferencestochastic susceptible–infected–recovered model on graph

Identifiers

PMID37989228
PMCPMC10668870

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.