Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37986972›Full record

ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2023

MSGene: Derivation and validation of a multistate model for lifetime risk of coronary artery disease using genetic risk and the electronic health record.

Sarah M Urbut, Ming Wai Yeung, Shaan Khurshid, So Mi Jemma Cho, Art Schuermans, Jakob German, Kodi Taraszka, Akl C Fahed, Patrick Ellinor, Ludovic Trinquart and 3 more

Abstract readPreprint
In one paragraph

Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Sarah M UrbutDivision of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA.ORCID 0000-0002-1135-9647
Ming Wai YeungUniversity of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Department of Cardiology, 9700 RB Groningen, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0001-9794-3109
Shaan KhurshidProgram in Medical and Population Genetics, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA.
So Mi Jemma ChoDivision of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA.ORCID 0000-0003-2460-3335
Art SchuermansProgram in Medical and Population Genetics, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA.ORCID 0000-0001-8146-9692
Jakob GermanInstitute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID 0009-0002-1257-7782
Kodi TaraszkaDana Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA.
Akl C FahedDivision of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA.
Patrick EllinorDivision of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA.ORCID 0000-0002-2067-0533
Ludovic TrinquartTufts University Medical Center, Boston, MA.ORCID 0000-0002-3028-4900
Giovanni ParmigianiDana Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA.ORCID 0000-0002-8783-5961
Alexander GusevDana Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA.
Pradeep NatarajanDivision of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA.ORCID 0000-0001-8402-7435

Funding

IDENTIFICATION OF COMMON GENETIC VARIANTS FOR ATRIAL FIBRILLATION AND PR INTERVALR01HL092577 · NHLBI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI BENJAMIN, EMELIA J., ELLINOR, PATRICK THOMAS · 2009 to 2025
$20.6M
Clonal hematopoiesis in the Womens Health Initiative Memory StudyR01HL148565 · NHLBI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI ALEXANDER P REINER, Eric A. Whitsel · 2019 to 2026
$5.9M
Clonal hematopoiesis in humans: determinants of development and progressionR01HL148050 · NHLBI · BAYLOR COLLEGE OF MEDICINE · PI BALLANTYNE, CHRISTIE MITCHELL, NATARAJAN, PRADEEP · 2019 to 2022
$5.9M
Enabling improved applicability and transferability of polygenic scores across populationsU01HG011719 · NHGRI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI Alicia Martin · 2021 to 2026
$5.5M
(PQ3) A functional genomic approach to identification and interpretation of germline-tumor genetic interactionsR01CA227237 · NCI · DANA-FARBER CANCER INST · PI GUSEV, ALEXANDER, ZAITLEN, NOAH A · 2018 to 2022
$3.5M
Genomics of Cardiac ArrhythmiasR01HL139731 · NHLBI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI ELLINOR, PATRICK THOMAS · 2018 to 2022
$3.3M
Characterizing non-coding somatic and germline variant interactions in ovarian cancerR01CA244569 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS HLTH SCIENCE CENTER · PI GAYTHER, SIMON ANDREW, GUSEV, ALEXANDER · 2020 to 2024
$3.3M
Coronary plaque changes with statin and colchicine among people with high polygenic risk- a mechanistic pilot studyR01HL164629 · NHLBI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI Akl C Fahed, Michael TseYin Lu · 2023 to 2026
$3.3M
Partners Healthcare Training Program in Precision and Genomic MedicineT32HG010464 · NHGRI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI HEIDI L REHM, JORDAN W SMOLLER · 2019 to 2026
$3.1M
Using Electrocardiogram Genetics to Inform Arrhythmia RiskR01HL157635 · NHLBI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI ELLINOR, PATRICK THOMAS, MIRSHAHI, TOORAJ · 2022 to 2025
$2.9M
Electrocardiogram-based deep learning and decision analysis to improve atrial fibrillation risk estimationK23HL169839 · NHLBI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI Shaan Khurshid · 2023 to 2026
$860k
Integrating genomic and nongenomic risk for coronary artery diseaseK08HL161448 · NHLBI · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · PI Akl C Fahed · 2022 to 2026
$751k
NCI NIH HHS R01 CA227237NCI NIH HHS R01 CA244569NHGRI NIH HHS R21 HG010748NHGRI NIH HHS T32 HG010464NHGRI NIH HHS U01 HG011719NHLBI NIH HHS K08 HL161448NHLBI NIH HHS K23 HL169839NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL092577NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL139731NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL148050NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL148565NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL157635NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL164629
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Currently, coronary artery disease (CAD) is the leading cause of death among adults worldwide. Accurate risk stratification can support optimal lifetime prevention. We designed a novel and general multistate model (MSGene) to estimate age-specific transitions across 10 cardiometabolic states, dependent on clinical covariates and a CAD polygenic risk score. MSGene supports decision making about CAD prevention related to any of these states. We analyzed longitudinal data from 480,638 UK Biobank participants and compared predicted lifetime risk with the 30-year Framingham risk score. MSGene improved discrimination (C-index 0.71 vs 0.66), age of high-risk detection (C-index 0.73 vs 0.52), and overall prediction (RMSE 1.1% vs 10.9%), with external validation. We also used MSGene to refine estimates of lifetime absolute risk reduction from statin initiation. Our findings underscore the potential public health value of our novel multistate model for accurate lifetime CAD risk estimation using clinical factors and increasingly available genetics.

Identifiers

PMID37986972
PMCPMC10659503

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.