ArticleNature communications2023
Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty.
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Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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35citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review of spatial epidemiological modeling approaches applied during the COVID-19 pandemic.BMC public health · 2026Pooled it
- Adaptive multi-model ensembles for improved epidemic projections and decision support.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Start from the end: Policy exploration to inform effective and consistent interventions applied to COVID-19 in St. Louis.PNAS nexus · 2026Article
- Assessing the Impact of Timing and Coverage of United States COVID-19 Vaccination Campaigns: A Multi-Model Approach.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Forecastability of infectious disease time series: are some seasons and pathogens intrinsically more difficult to forecast?PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Toward AI foundation models for epidemics: Promise, challenges, and paths forward.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Integrated framework to study genomic surveillance of selective sweeps in multivariants dynamics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Multi-Model Ensembles in Infectious Disease and Public Health: Methods, Interpretation, and Implementation in R.Statistics in medicine · 2026Article
- Clinical progression parameters associated with SARS-CoV-2, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus infections in a large US integrated healthcare population.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Epydemix: An open-source Python package for epidemic modeling with integrated approximate Bayesian calibration.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Human mobility and sewage data correlate with COVID-19 epidemic evolution in a 3-year surveillance of the metropolitan area of Bologna.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- A Systematic Review of Spatial Epidemiological Modeling Approaches Applied During the COVID-19 Pandemic.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Scenario Projections of COVID-19 Burden in the US, 2024-2025.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- A policy roadmap for sustainable mass-testing.Health affairs scholar · 2025Article
- Evolving infectious disease dynamics shape school-based intervention effectiveness.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Comparison between simulated scenarios and Swedish COVID-19 cases throughout the pandemic.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Comparative evaluation of behavioral epidemic models using COVID-19 data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- The utility of infectious disease modelling in informing decisions for outbreak response: A scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- How does policy modelling work in practice? A global analysis on the use of epidemiological modelling in health crises.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Scenario construction and evolutionary analysis of nonconventional public health emergencies based on Bayesian networks.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
83 authors.
Emily HowertonThe Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA. ehowerton@psu.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-0639-3728
Lucie ContaminUniversity of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5797-1279
Luke C MullanyJohns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Laurel, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4668-9803
Michelle QinHarvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0391-6527
Nicholas G ReichUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.
Samantha BentsNational Institutes of Health Fogarty International Center, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Rebecca K BorcheringThe Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4309-2913
Sung-Mok JungUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0787-4515
Sara L LooJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9763-5587
Claire P SmithJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
John LevanderUniversity of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4475-896X
Jessica KerrUniversity of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
J EspinoUniversity of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8104-2656
Willem G van PanhuisNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Rockville, MD, USA.
Harry HochheiserUniversity of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8793-9982
Marta GalantiColumbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Teresa YamanaColumbia University, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8349-3151
Sen PeiColumbia University, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7072-2995
Jeffrey ShamanColumbia University, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7216-7809
Kaitlin Rainwater-LovettJohns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Laurel, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8707-7339
Matt KinseyJohns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Laurel, MD, USA.
Kate TallaksenJohns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Laurel, MD, USA.
Shelby WilsonJohns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Laurel, MD, USA.
Lauren ShinJohns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, Laurel, MD, USA.
Joseph C LemaitreUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2677-6574
Joshua KaminskyJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Juan Dent HulseJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Elizabeth C LeeJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4156-9637
Clifton D McKeeJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Alison HillJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6583-3623
Dean KarlenUniversity of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada.
Matteo ChinazziNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5955-1929
Jessica T DavisNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Kunpeng MuNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Xinyue XiongNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Ana Pastore Y PionttiNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Alessandro VespignaniNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3419-4205
Erik T RosenstromNorth Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7755-0559
Julie S IvyNorth Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.
Maria E MayorgaNorth Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.
Julie L SwannNorth Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.
Guido EspañaUniversity of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
Sean CavanyUniversity of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
Sean MooreUniversity of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9062-6100
Alex PerkinsUniversity of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7518-4014
Thomas HladishUniversity of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Alexander PillaiUniversity of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Kok Ben TohNorthwestern University, Chicago, IL, USA.
Ira LonginiUniversity of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Shi ChenUniversity of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2316-111X
Rajib PaulUniversity of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA.
Daniel JaniesUniversity of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA.
Jean-Claude ThillUniversity of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA.
Anass BouchnitaUniversity of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX, USA.
Kaiming BiUniversity of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6234-6232
Michael LachmannSanta Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA.
Spencer J FoxUniversity of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1969-3778
Lauren Ancel MeyersUniversity of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.
Ajitesh SrivastavaUniversity of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8706-5717
Przemyslaw PorebskiUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8012-5791
Srini VenkatramananUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0874-8692
Aniruddha AdigaUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Bryan LewisUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0793-6082
Brian KlahnUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4690-9944
Joseph OuttenUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Benjamin HurtUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3803-2900
Jiangzhuo ChenUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Henning MortveitUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Amanda WilsonUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4778-5744
Madhav MaratheUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Stefan HoopsUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8503-8371
Parantapa BhattacharyaUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Dustin MachiUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Betsy L CadwellCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Jessica M HealyCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1149-2285
Rachel B SlaytonCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Michael A JohanssonCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5090-7722
Matthew BiggerstaffCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5108-8311
Shaun TrueloveJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0538-0607
Michael C RungeU.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center, Laurel, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8081-536X
Katriona SheaThe Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7607-8248
Cécile ViboudNational Institutes of Health Fogarty International Center, Bethesda, MD, USA. viboudc@mail.nih.gov.ORCID 0000-0003-3243-4711
Justin LesslerUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA. jlessler@unc.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-9741-8109
Funding
Re-Entry Supplement: Investigation of Oral Microbial Enzymes for the Detection and Treatment of Periodontal DiseaseUL1TR002489 · NCATS · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI BUSE, JOHN BERNARD, SHAHEEN, NICHOLAS J · 2018 to 2022
$48.6MNorth Carolina Translational and Clinical Sciences Institute (NC TraCS)UM1TR004406 · NCATS · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI NICHOLAS J SHAHEEN · 2023 to 2026
$37.5MMIDAS Coordination CenterU24GM132013 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI HOCHHEISER, HARRY S · 2019 to 2023
$8.1MStatistical methods for real-time forecasts of infectious disease: expanding dynamic time-series and machine learning approaches for pandemic scenariosR35GM119582 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST · PI Nicholas G Reich · 2016 to 2026
$4.8MMethods for Reducing Spatial Uncertainty and Bias in Disease SurveillanceR01AI102939 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI LESSLER, JUSTIN · 2013 to 2017
$4.6MAccelerating viral outbreak detection in US cities using mechanistic models, machine learning and diverse geospatial dataR01AI151176 · NIAID · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI GALVANI, ALISON P, MEYERS, LAUREN ANCEL · 2020 to 2024
$3.9MSystems Analysis of Social Pathways of Epidemics to Reduce Health DisparitiesR01GM109718 · NIGMS · VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INST AND ST UNIV · PI MARATHE, ACHLA, VULLIKANTI, ANIL · 2014 to 2022
$3.6MMerging machine learning and mechanistic models to improve prediction and inference in emerging epidemicsR01GM140564 · NIGMS · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI EDWARDS, JESSIE, LESSLER, JUSTIN · 2021 to 2024
$1.8MResearch in practice: translating infectious disease epidemiology RIP-TIDET32AI165369 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI WILLIAM J MOSS · 2022 to 2026
$1.5MAssessing the impact of COVID-19 interventions on human mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in the United StatesR21AI164391 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME · PI MOORE, SEAN MICHAEL · 2021 to 2022
$430kACL HHS U01IP001136ACL HHS U01IP001137NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR002489NCATS NIH HHS UM1 TR004406NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP001122NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP001136NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP001137NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI102939NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI151176NIAID NIH HHS R21 AI164391NIAID NIH HHS T32 AI165369NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM109718NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM140564NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM119582NIGMS NIH HHS U24 GM132013
Abstract
Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections.
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COVID-19HumansPandemicsSARS-CoV-2Uncertainty
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