ArticleJournal of the American Academy of Dermatology2024
Merkel cell carcinoma recurrence risk estimation is improved by integrating factors beyond cancer stage: A multivariable model and web-based calculator.
Article in Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Outcomes of Patients Undergoing Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy for Merkel Cell Carcinoma.Annals of surgical oncology · 2026Article
- Response of B Cells Specific for Polyomavirus-Derived Oncoprotein Is Predictive of Merkel Cell Carcinoma Tumor Control.Cancer immunology research · 2026Article
- Optimizing radiation therapy for merkel cell carcinoma: evaluating prognostic factors and treatment outcomes.International journal of clinical oncology · 2025Article
- An online explainable ensemble machine learning model for predicting epidermal growth factor receptor mutation status in lung adenocarcinoma.Translational lung cancer research · 2025Article
- Merkel-Cell Carcinoma: Local Recurrence Rate Versus Radiation Dose Study from a 949-Patient Database.Current oncology (Toronto, Ont.) · 2025Article
- A hybrid machine learning approach for the personalized prognostication of aggressive skin cancers.NPJ digital medicine · 2025Article
- Construction and validation of novel nomograms based on the log odds of positive lymph nodes to predict the prognosis of papillary thyroid cancer: a retrospective cohort study.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2025Article
- Perform tumor-specific survival analysis for Merkel cell carcinoma patients undergoing surgical resection based on the SEER database by constructing a nomogram chart.Open medicine (Warsaw, Poland) · 2025Article
- Merkel Cell Carcinoma.Hematology/oncology clinics of North America · 2024Review
- Lack of Clinically Significant Relationships of Age or Body Mass Index with Merkel Cell Carcinoma Immunotherapy Outcomes.Cancers · 2024Article
- Merkel Cell Carcinoma: Integrating Epidemiology, Immunology, and Therapeutic Updates.American journal of clinical dermatology · 2024Review
- Merkel cell carcinoma: updates in tumor biology, emerging therapies, and preclinical models.Frontiers in oncology · 2024Review
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundMerkel cell carcinoma (MCC) recurs in 40% of patients. In addition to stage, factors known to affect recurrence risk include: sex, immunosuppression, unknown primary status, age, site of primary tumor, and time since diagnosis. PURPOSE: Create a multivariable model and web-based calculator to predict MCC recurrence risk more accurately than stage alone.
methodsData from 618 patients in a prospective cohort were used in a competing risk regression model to estimate recurrence risk using stage and other factors.
resultsIn this multivariable model, the most impactful recurrence risk factors were: American Joint Committee on Cancer stage (P < .001), immunosuppression (hazard ratio 2.05; P < .001), male sex (1.59; P = .003) and unknown primary (0.65; P = .064). Compared to stage alone, the model improved prognostic accuracy (concordance index for 2-year risk, 0.66 vs 0.70; P < .001), and modified estimated recurrence risk by up to 4-fold (18% for low-risk stage IIIA vs 78% for high-risk IIIA over 5 years). LIMITATIONS: Lack of an external data set for model validation. CONCLUSION/RELEVANCE: As demonstrated by this multivariable model, accurate recurrence risk prediction requires integration of factors beyond stage. An online calculator based on this model (at merkelcell.org/recur) integrates time since diagnosis and provides new data for optimizing surveillance for MCC patients.
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