Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37982938›Full record

ArticleCarbon balance and management2023

Mind the gap: reconciling tropical forest carbon flux estimates from earth observation and national reporting requires transparency.

Viola Heinrich, Jo House, David A Gibbs, Nancy Harris, Martin Herold, Giacomo Grassi, Roberta Cantinho, Thais M Rosan, Barbara Zimbres, Julia Z Shimbo and 4 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Carbon balance and management, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Viola HeinrichSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK. viola.heinrich@gfz-potsdam.de.
Jo HouseSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
David A GibbsWorld Resources Institute, Washington, DC, USA.
Nancy HarrisWorld Resources Institute, Washington, DC, USA.
Martin HeroldSection 1.4 Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics, Helmholtz GFZ German Research Centre of Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, Germany.
Giacomo GrassiJoint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy.
Roberta CantinhoCentre for Sustainable Development (CDS), University of Brasília (UnB), Brasília, Brazil.
Thais M RosanFaculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Barbara ZimbresAmazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM), Brasília, Brazil.
Julia Z ShimboAmazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM), Brasília, Brazil.
Joana MeloJoint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy.
Tristram HalesSchool of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK.
Stephen SitchFaculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Luiz E O C AragãoFaculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.

Funding

ESA Climate Change Initiative 4000123002/18/I-NBHorizon 2020 Framework Programme 821003Natural Environment Research Council NE/L002434/1Open Earth Monitor Project (EU) 101059548
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe application of different approaches calculating the anthropogenic carbon net flux from land, leads to estimates that vary considerably. One reason for these variations is the extent to which approaches consider forest land to be "managed" by humans, and thus contributing to the net anthropogenic flux. Global Earth Observation (EO) datasets characterising spatio-temporal changes in land cover and carbon stocks provide an independent and consistent approach to estimate forest carbon fluxes. These can be compared against results reported in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (NGHGIs) to support accurate and timely measuring, reporting and verification (MRV). Using Brazil as a primary case study, with additional analysis in Indonesia and Malaysia, we compare a Global EO-based dataset of forest carbon fluxes to results reported in NGHGIs.

resultsBetween 2001 and 2020, the EO-derived estimates of all forest-related emissions and removals indicate that Brazil was a net sink of carbon (- 0.2 GtCO

conclusionsBy adjusting the EO dataset to improve comparability with carbon fluxes estimated for managed forests in the Brazilian NGHGI, initially diverging estimates were largely reconciled and remaining differences can be explained. Despite limited spatial data available for Indonesia and Malaysia, our comparison indicated specific aspects where differing approaches may explain divergence, including uncertainties and inaccuracies. Our study highlights the importance of enhanced transparency, as set out by the Paris Agreement, to enable alignment between different approaches for independent measuring and verification.

Indexed as

Carbon budgetCO2 fluxEarth observationForestsInventoriesLULUCFManaged land proxyRemoval factorsTransparency

Identifiers

PMID37982938
PMCPMC10662451

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.