ArticleBMC infectious diseases2023
Comparison of SARIMA model, Holt-winters model and ETS model in predicting the incidence of foodborne disease.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Spatiotemporal patterns and 2025 forecasting of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Beijing, China: a 21-year population-based study (2004-2024).BMC public health · 2026Article
- Time-Series Analysis and Age-Stratified Forecasting of Diarrheal Disease in Rwanda Using SARIMA Models.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Article
- Tuberculosis incidence and mortality trends in mainland China, 2004-2024: control program and elimination progress.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Article
- Nationwide Trends and Future Projections of Diabetes and Diabetic Retinopathy Prevalence in Korea: Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Study.Journal of Korean medical science · 2026Article
- Application of a novel approach for dementia prevalence prediction in Taiwan.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Modeling the seasonal epidemic of human brucellosis in China: A comparative time series analysis.PloS one · 2026Article
- Time series analysis of urethral obstruction in male cats in a veterinary teaching hospital in São paulo, Brazil.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Comparison of SES method and SARIMA model in predicting the number of admissions in the department of neurology.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Application and comparison of ARIMA, LSTM, and ARIMA-LSTM models for predicting foodborne diseases in Liaoning Province.Frontiers in big data · 2025Article
- Incidence of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Chongqing: a forecasting study based on mathematical models.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Epidemiology and SARIMA model of deaths in a tertiary comprehensive hospital in Hangzhou from 2015 to 2022.BMC public health · 2024Article
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8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundAccording to the World Health Organization, foodborne disease is a significant public health issue. We will choose the best model to predict foodborne disease by comparison, to provide evidence for government policies to prevent foodborne illness.
methodsThe foodborne disease monthly incidence data from June 2017 to April 2022 were obtained from the Chongqing Nan'an District Center for Disease Prevention and Control. Data from June 2017 to June 2021 were used to train the model, and the last 10 months of incidence were used for prediction and validation The incidence was fitted using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, Holt-Winters model and Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model. Besides, we used MSE, MAE, RMSE to determine which model fits better.
resultsDuring June 2017 to April 2022, the incidence of foodborne disease showed seasonal changes, the months with the highest incidence are June to November. The optimal model of SARIMA is SARIMA (1,0,0) (1,1,0)
conclusionBased on the results, Holt-Winters model produces better prediction accuracy of the model.
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