[Predicting the presence of

backgroundTimely referral of patients for genetic testing to rule out MEN1-associated primary PHPT is important factor in determining treatment strategy and prognosis. In the context of the limited availability of genetic testing, the search for clinical markers indicative of MEN1 gene mutations remains an extremely relevant task.

aimTo determine the diagnostic value of clinical features of primary PHPT in young patients for predicting the presence of MEN1 gene mutations. MATERIALS AND

methodsA single-center, prospective study was conducted at the Endocrinology Research Centre, involving 273 patients with PHPT in the period 2015-2022. Based on the results of genetic and laboratory tests, patients were divided into three groups: those with MEN1 gene mutations (MEN+ group, n=71), those without MEN1 gene mutations - isolated sporadic PHPT (MEN- group, n=158), and patients with PHPT and associated endocrine gland disorders - MEN-1 syndrome phenocopies (PHEN group, n=32). Subgroups of patients younger than 40 years of age were also identified. Comparative analysis was performed among the independent groups and subgroups, and logistic regression analysis was used to develop a mathematical model for predicting the probability of the presence of MEN1 gene mutation.

resultsPatients in the MEN+ and MEN- groups were comparable by gender and age at manifestation, as well as calcium-phosphorus metabolism parameters and PHPT complications. In the PHEN group, PHPT manifested at older age compared to the other groups (p<0.001 for all), with lower total calcium levels and a trend toward lower iPTH concentrations. The MEN+ group had a significantly higher frequency of multiglandular parathyroid (PG) involvement, PHPT recurrence, and positive family history compared to the MEN- and PHEN groups. Histologically, adenomas predominated in the PHEN and MEN- groups (92% and 94%, respectively), whereas hyperplasia of PGs were more common in the MEN+ group (49%). None of the PHEN patients had all three «classic» components of the MEN-1 syndrome, and the clinical course of PHPT was similar to that of the MEN- group. These differences were also observed in the subgroups of patients younger than 40 years, which formed the basis for the development of a mathematical model. The logistic regression equation for predicting the probability of the presence of the MEN1 gene mutation included eight predictors, with a diagnostic sensitivity of 96% and specificity of 98%.

conclusionBased on the analysis performed, eight hereditary predictors of PHPT within the MEN-1 syndrome were identified. A mathematical model was developed to predict the presence of the MEN1 gene mutation in patients, which demonstrated high classification performance on the training dataset. Further refinement of the model will help improve the quality of medical care for patients with PHPT.