Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37965885›Full record

ArticleDemography2023

The Dangers of Drawing Cohort Profiles From Period Data: A Research Note.

Alyson A van Raalte, Ugofilippo Basellini, Carlo Giovanni Camarda, Marília R Nepomuceno, Mikko Myrskylä

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Demography, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. [Mortality trends in Germany in an international context].Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz · 2024
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Alyson A van RaalteMax Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-0676-8921
Ugofilippo BaselliniMax Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.ORCID 0000-0003-0292-1404
Carlo Giovanni CamardaFrench Institute for Demographic Studies (INED), Aubervilliers, France.ORCID 0000-0003-0191-4093
Marília R NepomucenoMax Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-5687-5776
Mikko MyrskyläMax Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.ORCID 0000-0003-4995-027X

Funding

Identifying the Causes of the Stagnation in National U.S. Cardiovascular Disease MortalityR01AG075208 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MED BR GALVESTON · PI NEIL MEHTA · 2023 to 2026
$1.5M
NIA NIH HHS R01 AG075208
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Drawing cohort profiles and cohort forecasts from grids of age-period data is common practice in demography. In this research note, we (1) show how demographic measures artificially fluctuate when calculated from the diagonals of age-period rates because of timing and cohort-size bias, (2) estimate the magnitude of these biases, and (3) illustrate how prediction intervals for cohort indicators of mortality may become implausible when drawn from Lee-Carter methods and age-period grids. These biases are surprisingly large, even when the cohort profiles are created from single-age, single-year period data. The danger is that we overinterpret deviations from expected trends that were induced by our own data manipulation.

Indexed as

Life ExpectancyMortalityFertilityForecastingHumansPopulation DynamicsCohort fertilityCohort life expectancyLee–Carter methodLexis diagram

Identifiers

PMID37965885
PMCPMC10843689

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.