ArticlePloS one2023
A deterministic compartmental model for the transition between variants in the spread of Covid-19 in Italy.
Article in PloS one, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Comparing the Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Immune Resistance Evolving Across Regions in the Americas with Differing Approaches to Public Health.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Epidemiological indices with multiple circulating pathogen strains.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
We propose a deterministic epidemic model to describe the transition between two variants of the same virus, through the combination of a series of realistic mechanisms such as partial cross immunity, waning immunity for vaccinated individuals and a novel data-based algorithm to describe the average immunological status of the population. The model is validated on the evolution of Covid-19 in Italy, during the period in which the transition between Delta and Omicron variant occurred, with very satisfactory agreement with the experimental data. According to our model, if the vaccine efficacy had been equal against Delta and Omicron variant infections, the transition would have been smoothed and the epidemic would have gone extinct. This circumstance confirms the fundamental role of vaccines in combating the epidemic, and the importance of identifying vaccines capable of intercepting new variants.
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