Observational studyDeutsches Arzteblatt international2023
Long-Term Trends in the Protection Against Severe Courses of COVID-19 by Vaccination.
Observational study in Deutsches Arzteblatt international, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Long-Term Changes in Vaccination Protection Against Severe Courses of COVID-19 by Non-adapted MRNA-Based Vaccines—A Retrospective Observational Study in Elderly Persons During the XBB Wave.Deutsches Arzteblatt international · 2024Article
- Comparison of fatalities due to COVID-19 and other nonexternal causes during the first five pandemic waves : Results from multiple cause of death statistics in Bavaria.Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe long-term course of protection against severe COVID-19 courses by vaccine-induced or hybrid immunity in Germany is unclear.
methodsWe studied 146 457 cases aged 60-99 years in the German federal state of Bavaria who were immunized against COVID-19 and tested positive for it from February 2022 to January 2023. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios for a severe course (hospitalization or death due to COVID-19) for different intervals between the onset of full primary or booster immunity and the date of the infection.
results3342 (2.3%) severe courses of COVID-19 were observed in the first 60 days after the infection. The risk of a severe course rose with the interval between the onset of immune protection and the infection (adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals at 6, 9, 12, and 15 months: 1.14 [1.08; 1.20]; 1.33 [1.24; 1.42]; 1.39 [1.25; 1.54]; 1.61 [1.35; 1.93]). The risk rose more slowly when mRNA-based vaccines were used exclusively. In a previous study, we observed 82% initial efficacy in cases aged 60 and above who received a booster vaccination (compared to unvaccinated cases) and an absolute risk reduction of 2.1%. If one extrapolates these findings to the current study, the residual efficacy and absolute risk reduction are found to be approximately 71% and 1.8% (respectively) at 6 months, and 32% and 0.8% at 15 months.
conclusionThese results indicate that, during the Omicron wave, the protection of older persons against a severe COVID-19 course gradually declined from six months after vaccination onward. The limitations of this study include confounders that could not be taken into account, possible misclassification of the cause of death, and selection bias due to missing information about vaccination status and severe COVID-19 courses.
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