Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37963058›Full record

ArticleJNCI cancer spectrum2023

Accuracy of oncologists' estimates of expected survival time in advanced cancer.

Sharon H Nahm, Andrew J Martin, Josephine M Clayton, Peter Grimison, Erin B Moth, Nick Pavlakis, Katrin Sjoquist, Megan E S Smith-Uffen, Annette Tognela, Anuradha Vasista and 2 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in JNCI cancer spectrum, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
1.4field-weighted citation impact, top 15% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed, 6 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Observational
  5. In pursuit of a functional cure for follicular lymphoma.Hematology. American Society of Hematology. Education Program · 2024
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.

Sharon H NahmThe NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-6744-2717
Andrew J MartinThe NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Josephine M ClaytonSydney Medical School, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Peter GrimisonThe University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Erin B MothThe University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Nick PavlakisThe University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Katrin SjoquistThe NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Megan E S Smith-UffenDepartment of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Annette TognelaMacarthur Cancer Therapy Centre, Sydney, Australia.
Anuradha VasistaSydney Medical School, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Martin R StocklerThe NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-3793-8724
Belinda E KielyThe NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-1662-3523
The University of Sydney · AUCancer Australia · AUMcMaster University · CA

Funding

National Health and Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Centre Postgraduate Research Scholarship
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundTo evaluate the claim that oncologists overestimate expected survival time (EST) in advanced cancer.

methodsWe pooled 7 prospective studies in which observed survival time (OST) was compared with EST (median survival in a group of similar patients estimated at baseline by the treating oncologist). We hypothesized that EST would be well calibrated (approximately 50% of EST longer than OST) and imprecise (<30% of EST within 0.67 to 1.33 of OST), and that multiples of EST would provide well-calibrated scenarios for survival time: worst-case (approximately 10% of OST <1/4 of EST), typical (approximately 50% of OST within half to double EST), and best-case (approximately 10% of OST >3 times EST). Associations between baseline characteristics and calibration of EST were assessed.

resultsCharacteristics of 1,211 patients: median age 66 years, male 61%, primary site lung (40%) and upper gastrointestinal (16%). The median OST was 8 months, and EST was 9 months. Oncologists' estimates of EST were well calibrated (50% longer than OST) and imprecise (28% within 0.67 to 1.33 of OST). Scenarios for survival time based on simple multiples of EST were well calibrated: 8% of patients had an OST less than 1/4 their EST (worst-case), 56% had an OST within half to double their EST (typical), and 11% had an OST greater than 3 times their EST (best-case). Calibration was independent of age, sex, and cancer type.

conclusionsOncologists were no more likely to overestimate survival time than to underestimate it. Simple multiples of EST provide well-calibrated estimates of worst-case, typical, and best-case scenarios for survival.

Indexed as

NeoplasmsOncologistsAgedHumansLife ExpectancyMaleProspective Studies

Identifiers

PMID37963058
PMCPMC10697783
OpenAlexW4388667154

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.