ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2023
Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 21 citations in OpenAlex.
- Assessing the Environmental Drivers of Lassa Fever in West Africa: A Systematic Review.Viruses · 2025Pooled it
- Climate-driven host ecology as a framework for zoonotic disease risk: Understanding transferability across arenavirus systems.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- A fractional-order analysis of recurrent Lassa fever transmission in Nigeria.Virus research · 2026Article
- Serological evidence of Lassa virus in commensal rodents from Senegal.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Descriptive Epidemiology of Acute Febrile Illness Patients in Nigeria: Pathogens of Global Public Health Significance Detected Using a Multi-Pathogen Detection Tool.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2025Article
- Revealing hidden drivers of Lassa fever through a model-informed approach for reproducing and predicting disease dynamics and guiding control strategies.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Gaps and opportunities for data systems and economics to support priority setting for climate-sensitive infectious diseases in sub-Saharan Africa: A rapid scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Lassa fever in Nigeria: epidemiology and risk perception.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Lassa Fever: Critical Review and Prospects for Control.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2024Review
- Modelling Lassa virus dynamics in West AfricanJournal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Lassa fever (Lf) is a viral haemorrhagic disease endemic to West Africa and is caused by the Lassa mammarenavirus. The rodent Mastomys natalensis serves as the primary reservoir and its ecology and behaviour have been linked to the distinct spatial and temporal patterns in the incidence of Lf. Nigeria has experienced an unprecedented epidemic that lasted from January until April of 2018, which has been followed by subsequent epidemics of Lf in the same period every year since. While previous research has modelled the case seasonality within Nigeria, this did not capture the seasonal variation in the reproduction of the zoonotic reservoir and its effect on case numbers. To this end, we introduce an approximate Bayesian computation scheme to fit our model to the case data from 2018-2020 supplied by the NCDC. In this study we used a periodically forced seasonal nonautonomous system of ordinary differential equations as a vector model to demonstrate that the population dynamics of the rodent reservoir may be responsible for the spikes in the number of observed cases in humans. The results show that in December through to March, spillover from the zoonotic reservoir drastically increases and spreads the virus to the people of Nigeria. Therefore to effectively combat Lf, attention and efforts should be concentrated during this period.
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