Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37950885›Full record

ArticleMolecular biology and evolution2023

Shrinkage-based Random Local Clocks with Scalable Inference.

Alexander A Fisher, Xiang Ji, Akihiko Nishimura, Guy Baele, Philippe Lemey, Marc A Suchard

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Molecular biology and evolution, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed
2.0field-weighted citation impact, top 14% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 15 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Bayesian phylodynamic inference of population dynamics with dormancy.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  6. Bayesian phylodynamic inference of population dynamics with dormancy.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.

Alexander A FisherDepartment of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
Xiang JiDepartment of Mathematics, School of Science & Engineering, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA.
Akihiko NishimuraDepartment of Biostatistics, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Guy BaeleDepartment of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.ORCID 0000-0002-1915-7732
Philippe LemeyDepartment of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.ORCID 0000-0003-2826-5353
Marc A SuchardDepartment of Computational Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9818-479X
Rega Institute for Medical Research · BEDuke University · USJohns Hopkins University · USTulane University · USUniversity of California, Los Angeles · US

Funding

Technology CoreU19AI135995 · NIAID · SCRIPPS RESEARCH INSTITUTE, THE · PI Kristian Graugaard Andersen · 2018 to 2026
$32.0M
Fast and flexible Bayesian phylogenetics via modern machine learningR01AI162611 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI MATSEN, FREDERICK ALBERT · 2021 to 2025
$3.8M
Statistical Innovation to Integrate Sequences and Phenotypes for Scalable Phylodynamic InferenceR01AI153044 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI Marc A. Suchard · 2021 to 2026
$2.4M
NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI153044NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI162611NIAID NIH HHS U19 AI135995Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Molecular clock models undergird modern methods of divergence-time estimation. Local clock models propose that the rate of molecular evolution is constant within phylogenetic subtrees. Current local clock inference procedures exhibit one or more weaknesses, namely they achieve limited scalability to trees with large numbers of taxa, impose model misspecification, or require a priori knowledge of the existence and location of clocks. To overcome these challenges, we present an autocorrelated, Bayesian model of heritable clock rate evolution that leverages heavy-tailed priors with mean zero to shrink increments of change between branch-specific clocks. We further develop an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler that exploits closed form gradient computations to scale our model to large trees. Inference under our shrinkage clock exhibits a speed-up compared to the popular random local clock when estimating branch-specific clock rates on a variety of simulated datasets. This speed-up increases with the size of the problem. We further show our shrinkage clock recovers known local clocks within a rodent and mammalian phylogeny. Finally, in a problem that once appeared computationally impractical, we investigate the heritable clock structure of various surface glycoproteins of influenza A virus in the absence of prior knowledge about clock placement. We implement our shrinkage clock and make it publicly available in the BEAST software package.

Indexed as

Evolution, MolecularMammalsAnimalsBayes TheoremModels, GeneticPhylogenyTime FactorsBayesian phylogeneticsdivergence time estimationHamiltonian Monte Carlorandom local clockshrinkage clock

Identifiers

PMID37950885
PMCPMC10665039
OpenAlexW3163696165

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.