Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37949993›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2023

Local Bayesian Dirichlet mixing of imperfect models.

Vojtech Kejzlar, Léo Neufcourt, Witold Nazarewicz

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Vojtech KejzlarMathematics and Statistics Department, Skidmore College, Saratoga Springs, NY, 12866, USA. vkejzlar@skidmore.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1001-011X
Léo NeufcourtFRIB Laboratory, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0502-4429
Witold NazarewiczDepartment of Physics and Astronomy and FRIB Laboratory, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8084-7425

Funding

National Science Foundation 2004601U.S. Department of Energy DE-SC0023688
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

To improve the predictability of complex computational models in the experimentally-unknown domains, we propose a Bayesian statistical machine learning framework utilizing the Dirichlet distribution that combines results of several imperfect models. This framework can be viewed as an extension of Bayesian stacking. To illustrate the method, we study the ability of Bayesian model averaging and mixing techniques to mine nuclear masses. We show that the global and local mixtures of models reach excellent performance on both prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification and are preferable to classical Bayesian model averaging. Additionally, our statistical analysis indicates that improving model predictions through mixing rather than mixing of corrected models leads to more robust extrapolations.

Identifiers

PMID37949993
PMCPMC10638441

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.