Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37949982›Full record

Observational studyScientific reports2023

Machine learning vs. traditional regression analysis for fluid overload prediction in the ICU.

Andrea Sikora, Tianyi Zhang, David J Murphy, Susan E Smith, Brian Murray, Rishikesan Kamaleswaran, Xianyan Chen, Mitchell S Buckley, Sandra Rowe, John W Devlin

Open access · goldAbstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed
6.7field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 21 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 7 institutions in 1 country.

Andrea SikoraDepartment of Clinical and Administrative Pharmacy, University of Georgia College of Pharmacy, 1120 15th Street, HM-118, Augusta, GA, 30912, USA.
Tianyi ZhangDepartment of Statistics, University of Georgia Franklin College of Arts and Sciences, Athens, GA, USA.
David J MurphyDivision of Pulmonary, Allergy, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Susan E SmithDepartment of Clinical and Administrative Pharmacy, University of Georgia College of Pharmacy, 1120 15th Street, HM-118, Augusta, GA, 30912, USA.
Brian MurrayDepartment of Pharmacy, University of North Carolina Medical Center, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
Rishikesan KamaleswaranDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Xianyan ChenDepartment of Statistics, University of Georgia Franklin College of Arts and Sciences, Athens, GA, USA.
Mitchell S BuckleyLaJolla Pharmaceuticals, Waltham, USA.
Sandra RoweDepartment of Pharmacy, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR, USA.
John W DevlinNortheastern University School of Pharmacy, Boston, MA, USA. j.devlin@northeastern.edu.
Emory University · USGeorgia College & State University · USUniversity of Georgia · USBrigham and Women's Hospital · USLa Jolla Pharmaceutical (United States) · USOregon Health & Science University · USUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill · US

Funding

Re-Entry Supplement: Investigation of Oral Microbial Enzymes for the Detection and Treatment of Periodontal DiseaseUL1TR002489 · NCATS · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI BUSE, JOHN BERNARD, SHAHEEN, NICHOLAS J · 2018 to 2022
$48.6M
North Carolina Translational and Clinical Sciences Institute (NC TraCS)UM1TR004406 · NCATS · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI NICHOLAS J SHAHEEN · 2023 to 2026
$37.5M
Artificial intelligence-based health IT tools to optimize critical care pharmacist resources through adverse drug event predictionR01HS029009 · AHRQ · UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA · PI Andrea Sikora · 2022 to 2026
$1.8M
AHRQ HHS R01 HS029009AHRQ HHS R21 HS028485NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR002489NCATS NIH HHS UM1 TR004406
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Fluid overload, while common in the ICU and associated with serious sequelae, is hard to predict and may be influenced by ICU medication use. Machine learning (ML) approaches may offer advantages over traditional regression techniques to predict it. We compared the ability of traditional regression techniques and different ML-based modeling approaches to identify clinically meaningful fluid overload predictors. This was a retrospective, observational cohort study of adult patients admitted to an ICU ≥ 72 h between 10/1/2015 and 10/31/2020 with available fluid balance data. Models to predict fluid overload (a positive fluid balance ≥ 10% of the admission body weight) in the 48-72 h after ICU admission were created. Potential patient and medication fluid overload predictor variables (n = 28) were collected at either baseline or 24 h after ICU admission. The optimal traditional logistic regression model was created using backward selection. Supervised, classification-based ML models were trained and optimized, including a meta-modeling approach. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were compared between the traditional and ML fluid prediction models. A total of 49 of the 391 (12.5%) patients developed fluid overload. Among the ML models, the XGBoost model had the highest performance (AUROC 0.78, PPV 0.27, NPV 0.94) for fluid overload prediction. The XGBoost model performed similarly to the final traditional logistic regression model (AUROC 0.70; PPV 0.20, NPV 0.94). Feature importance analysis revealed severity of illness scores and medication-related data were the most important predictors of fluid overload. In the context of our study, ML and traditional models appear to perform similarly to predict fluid overload in the ICU. Baseline severity of illness and ICU medication regimen complexity are important predictors of fluid overload.

Indexed as

Intensive Care UnitsMachine LearningAdultCohort StudiesHumansLogistic ModelsRetrospective StudiesROC Curve

Identifiers

PMID37949982
PMCPMC10638304
OpenAlexW4388563349

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.