Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37946767›Full record

ReviewWorld journal of clinical cases2023

Applications of time series analysis in epidemiology: Literature review and our experience during COVID-19 pandemic.

Latchezar Tomov, Lyubomir Chervenkov, Dimitrina Georgieva Miteva, Hristiana Batselova, Tsvetelina Velikova

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in World journal of clinical cases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Latchezar TomovDepartment of Informatics, New Bulgarian University, Sofia 1618, Bulgaria. luchesart@gmail.com.
Lyubomir ChervenkovDepartment of Diagnostic Imaging, Medical University Plovdiv, Plovdiv 4000, Bulgaria.
Dimitrina Georgieva MitevaDepartment of Genetics, Faculty of Biology, Sofia University "St. Kliment Ohridski", Sofia 1164, Bulgaria.
Hristiana BatselovaDepartment of Epidemiology and Disaster Medicine, Medical University, University Hospital "St George", Plovdiv 4000, Bulgaria.
Tsvetelina VelikovaDepartment of Medical Faculty, Sofia University, St. Kliment Ohridski, Sofia 1407, Bulgaria.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Time series analysis is a valuable tool in epidemiology that complements the classical epidemiological models in two different ways: Prediction and forecast. Prediction is related to explaining past and current data based on various internal and external influences that may or may not have a causative role. Forecasting is an exploration of the possible future values based on the predictive ability of the model and hypothesized future values of the external and/or internal influences. The time series analysis approach has the advantage of being easier to use (in the cases of more straightforward and linear models such as Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average). Still, it is limited in forecasting time, unlike the classical models such as Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed. Its applicability in forecasting comes from its better accuracy for short-term prediction. In its basic form, it does not assume much theoretical knowledge of the mechanisms of spreading and mutating pathogens or the reaction of people and regulatory structures (governments, companies,

Indexed as

Auto-regressive integrated moving averageCOVID-19EpidemiologyExcess mortalityPandemicSeroprevalenceTime series analysis

Identifiers

PMID37946767
PMCPMC10631421

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.