ArticleNature food2023
Agricultural input shocks affect crop yields more in the high-yielding areas of the world.
Article in Nature food, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- A pro-natural product design strategy affords ester-based green fungicide candidates.Science advances · 2026Article
- Spatial trade-offs between environmental sustainability and crop production in China under SDG-aligned scenarios.iScience · 2026Article
- Land degradation is associated with larger crop yield gaps across global croplands.Nature food · 2026Article
- Global food security rests on the Strait of Hormuz.Nature food · 2026Article
- Global soybean trade dynamics: Drivers, impacts, and sustainability.Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.)) · 2026Review
- Global determinants of yield variability under sustainable farming approaches across climate, soil, and topography. A meta-analysis.Agronomy for sustainable development · 2026Article
- Research on the impact of climate change on food security in Africa.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Integrated irrigation and nitrogen optimization is a resource-efficient adaptation strategy for US maize and soybean production.Nature food · 2025Article
- Microbial alternatives for sustainable insecticide use, a Canadian perspective.Sustainable microbiology · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The industrialization of agriculture has led to an increasing dependence on non-locally sourced agricultural inputs. Hence, shocks in the availability of agricultural inputs can be devastating to food crop production. There is also a pressure to decrease the use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides in many areas. However, the combined impact of the agricultural input shocks on crop yields has not yet been systematically assessed globally. Here we modelled the effects of agricultural input shocks using a random forest machine learning algorithm. We show that shocks in fertilizers cause the most drastic yield losses. Under the scenario of 50% shock in all studied agricultural inputs, global maize production could decrease up to 26%, and global wheat production up to 21%, impacting particularly the high-yielding 'breadbasket' areas of the world. Our study provides insights into global food system resilience and can be useful for preparing for potential future shocks or agricultural input availability decreases at local and global scales.
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