Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37944114›Full record

SynthesisAnesthesiology2024

Prediction of Complications and Prognostication in Perioperative Medicine: A Systematic Review and PROBAST Assessment of Machine Learning Tools.

Pietro Arina, Maciej R Kaczorek, Daniel A Hofmaenner, Walter Pisciotta, Patricia Refinetti, Mervyn Singer, Evangelos B Mazomenos, John Whittle

Abstract readSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Anesthesiology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers, 8 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
37citing papers in PubMed, 8 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

37 citing papers in PubMed, 8 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Pietro ArinaBloomsbury Institute of Intensive Care Medicine and Human Physiology and Performance Laboratory, Centre for Perioperative Medicine, Department of Targeted Intervention, University College London, London, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-2080-5274
Maciej R KaczorekWellcome/EPSRC Centre of Interventional and Surgical Sciences and Department of Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
Daniel A HofmaennerBloomsbury Institute of Intensive Care Medicine, University College London, London, United Kingdom; and Institute of Intensive Care Medicine, University Hospital Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Walter PisciottaBloomsbury Institute of Intensive Care Medicine, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
Patricia RefinettiHuman Physiology and Performance Laboratory, Centre for Perioperative Medicine, Department of Targeted Intervention, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
Mervyn SingerBloomsbury Institute of Intensive Care Medicine, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
Evangelos B MazomenosWellcome/EPSRC Centre of Interventional and Surgical Sciences and Department of Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
John WhittleHuman Physiology and Performance Laboratory, Centre for Perioperative Medicine, Department of Targeted Intervention, University College London, London, United Kingdom.

Funding

Wellcome Trust 203145Wellcome Trust 223793
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe utilization of artificial intelligence and machine learning as diagnostic and predictive tools in perioperative medicine holds great promise. Indeed, many studies have been performed in recent years to explore the potential. The purpose of this systematic review is to assess the current state of machine learning in perioperative medicine, its utility in prediction of complications and prognostication, and limitations related to bias and validation.

methodsA multidisciplinary team of clinicians and engineers conducted a systematic review using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) protocol. Multiple databases were searched, including Scopus, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), the Cochrane Library, PubMed, Medline, Embase, and Web of Science. The systematic review focused on study design, type of machine learning model used, validation techniques applied, and reported model performance on prediction of complications and prognostication. This review further classified outcomes and machine learning applications using an ad hoc classification system. The Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to assess risk of bias and applicability of the studies.

resultsA total of 103 studies were identified. The models reported in the literature were primarily based on single-center validations (75%), with only 13% being externally validated across multiple centers. Most of the mortality models demonstrated a limited ability to discriminate and classify effectively. The PROBAST assessment indicated a high risk of systematic errors in predicted outcomes and artificial intelligence or machine learning applications.

conclusionsThe findings indicate that the development of this field is still in its early stages. This systematic review indicates that application of machine learning in perioperative medicine is still at an early stage. While many studies suggest potential utility, several key challenges must be first overcome before their introduction into clinical practice. EDITOR’S PERSPECTIVE:

Indexed as

Artificial IntelligencePerioperative MedicineBiasDatabases, FactualMachine Learning

Identifiers

PMID37944114
PMCPMC11146190

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.