ArticleInjury epidemiology2023
Importance of categories of crime for predicting future violent crime among handgun purchasers in California.
Article in Injury epidemiology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Association of prior criminal charges and convictions with subsequent violent and firearm-related crime: a retrospective cohort study.Injury epidemiology · 2025Article
- Individual, firearm, and purchasing characteristics associated with risk of firearm-related violent crime arrest: a nested case-control study.Injury epidemiology · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundProhibiting the purchase and possession of firearms by those at risk of violence is an established approach to preventing firearm violence. Prior studies of legal purchasers have focused on convictions for specific crimes, such as violent misdemeanors and driving under the influence (DUI). We broaden that line of inquiry by investigating and comparing the associations between prior arrests for most categories of crime and subsequent arrest for violent offenses among legal handgun purchasers in California.
methodsIn this longitudinal cohort study of 79,678 legal handgun purchasers in California in 2001, we group arrest charges prior to their first purchases in 2001 according to categories defined by the Uniform Crime Report (UCR) Handbook. We use a gradient boosting machine to identify categories of offenses that are most important for predicting arrest for violent crime following firearm purchase. For each category identified, we then estimate the difference in risk of subsequent arrest for a violent offense using survival regression models.
resultsWe identified eight crime categories with high predictive importance: simple assaults, aggravated assaults, vehicle violations, weapon, other crimes, theft, drug abuse, and DUI. Compared to purchasers with no prior arrests, those with a prior arrest for any one of the eight important categories and no other categories were found to be at increased risk of arrest for a Crime Index-listed violent crime (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault), with the greatest estimated risk corresponding to the simple assault UCR category (adjusted hazard ratio 4.0; 95% CI 2.8-5.9). Simple assault was also associated with the greatest risk for subsequent arrest for firearm violence (adjusted hazard ratio 4.6; 95% CI 2.4-9.0) and any violent offense (adjusted hazard ratio 3.7; 95% CI 2.7-5.0).
conclusionThe findings of this study suggest that prior arrests for a broad array of crimes, both violent and non-violent, are associated with risk of subsequent violent crimes, including Crime Index-listed violent crimes and firearm violence, among legal purchasers of firearms. Current policies aimed at restricting access to firearms for individuals at increased risk of violence should be re-examined considering these findings.
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