Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37940404›Full record

ArticleTobacco control2025

Declines in cigarette smoking among US adolescents and young adults: indications of independence from e-cigarette vaping surge.

John P Pierce, Man Luo, Sara B McMenamin, Matthew D Stone, Eric C Leas, David Strong, Yuyan Shi, Sheila Kealey, Tarik Benmarhnia, Karen Messer

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Tobacco control, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
32citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
7.0field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

32 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 40 citations in OpenAlex.

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  20. Tobacco Susceptibility and Use Among Rural Adolescents: The Role of Tobacco Marketing Exposure and Screen Media Use.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

John P PierceDivision of Health Policy, Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA jppierce@ucsd.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-0075-7471
Man LuoDivision of Biostatistics, Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
Sara B McMenaminDivision of Health Policy, Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA.
Matthew D StoneDivision of Health Policy, Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-1152-0621
Eric C LeasDivision of Health Policy, Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9221-0336
David StrongDivision of Health Behavior, Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
Yuyan ShiDivision of Health Policy, Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9293-0659
Sheila KealeyCancer Control Program, Moores Cancer Center, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA.
Tarik BenmarhniaScripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA.
Karen MesserDivision of Biostatistics, Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
University of California San Diego · USScripps Institution of Oceanography · US

Funding

VIRAL MALIGNANCYP30CA023100 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI DIANE M SIMEONE · 1985 to 2026
$124.9M
NCI NIH HHS P30 CA023100
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo compare trends in cigarette smoking and nicotine vaping among US population aged 17-18 years and 18-24 years.

methodsRegression analyses identified trends in ever and current use of cigarettes and e-cigarettes, using three US representative surveys from 1992 to 2022.

resultsFrom 1997 to 2020, cigarette smoking prevalence among those aged 18-24 years decreased from 29.1% (95% CI 27.4% to 30.7%) to 5.4% (95% CI 3.9% to 6.9%). The decline was highly correlated with a decline in past 30-day smoking among those aged 17-18 years (1997: 36.8% (95% CI 35.6% to 37.9%; 2022: 3.0% (95% CI 1.8% to 4.1%). From 2017 to 2019, both ever-vaping and past 30-day nicotine vaping (11.0% to 25.5%) surged among those 17-18 years, however there was no increase among those aged 18-24 years. Regression models demonstrated that the surge in vaping was independent of the decline in cigarette smoking. In the 24 most populous US states, exclusive vaping did increase among those aged 18-24 years, from 1.7% to 4.0% to equivalent to 40% of the decline in cigarette smoking between 2014-15 and 2018-19. Across these US states, the correlation between the changes in vaping and smoking prevalence was low (r=0.11). In the two US states with >US$1/fluid mL tax on e-cigarettes in 2017, cigarette smoking declined faster than the US average.

conclusionsSince 1997, a large decline in cigarette smoking occurred in the US population under age 24 years, that was independent of the 2017-19 adolescent surge in past 30-day e-cigarette vaping. Further research is needed to assess whether the 2014-15 to 2018-19 increase in exclusive vaping in those aged 18-24 years is a cohort effect from earlier dependence on e-cigarette vaping as adolescents.

Indexed as

Cigarette SmokingElectronic Nicotine Delivery SystemsVapingAdolescentFemaleHumansMalePrevalenceUnited StatesYoung Adultdenormalizationelectronic nicotine delivery devicespreventionsurveillance and monitoring

Identifiers

PMID37940404
PMCPMC12128786
OpenAlexW4388488010

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.