ArticleBMC infectious diseases2023
Exploring the impact of population ageing on the spread of emerging respiratory infections and the associated burden of mortality.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 14 citations in OpenAlex.
- A scoping review of COVID-19 modelling studies in Belgium 2020-2024: incorporation of behaviour and lessons learned.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Pooled it
- Demographic changes and behavioural responses shape vulnerability to infectious disease outbreaks.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Socioeconomic status and migration background as predictors of complicated lower respiratory tract infections in primary care.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Epidemiological analysis of infectious diseases in older people in China from 2014 to 2022: a population-based study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Trend and forecast analysis of the changing disease burden of tuberculosis in China, 1990-2021.Epidemiology and infection · 2025Article
- Satisfaction with Care Received at the End of Life in Portugal: A Systematic Review.Nursing reports (Pavia, Italy) · 2025Review
- The role of frailty in shaping social contact patterns in Belgium, 2022-2023.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Global, regional and national burden of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, 1990-2021 and projection to 2040.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- Associations between Physical Activity Frequency in Leisure Time and Subjective Cognitive Limitations in Middle-Aged Spanish Adults: A Cross-Sectional Study.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Vaccine uptake, associated factors and reasons for vaccination status among the South African elderly; findings and next steps.PloS one · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIncreasing life expectancy and persistently low fertility levels have led to old population age structures in most high-income countries, and population ageing is expected to continue or even accelerate in the coming decades. While older adults on average have few interactions that potentially could lead to disease transmission, their morbidity and mortality due to infectious diseases, respiratory infections in particular, remain substantial. We aim to explore how population ageing affects the future transmission dynamics and mortality burden of emerging respiratory infections.
methodsUsing longitudinal individual-level data from population registers, we model the Belgian population with evolving age and household structures, and explicitly consider long-term care facilities (LTCFs). Three scenarios are presented for the future proportion of older adults living in LTCFs. For each demographic scenario, we simulate outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 and a novel influenza A virus in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 and distinguish between household and community transmission. We estimate attack rates by age and household size/type, as well as disease-related deaths and the associated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost.
resultsAs the population is ageing, small households and LTCFs become more prevalent. Additionally, families with children become smaller (i.e. low fertility, single-parent families). The overall attack rate slightly decreases as the population is ageing, but to a larger degree for influenza than for SARS-CoV-2 due to differential age-specific attack rates. Nevertheless, the number of deaths and QALY losses per 1,000 people is increasing for both infections and at a speed influenced by the share living in LTCFs.
conclusionPopulation ageing is associated with smaller outbreaks of COVID-19 and influenza, but at the same time it is causing a substantially larger burden of mortality, even if the proportion of LTCF residents were to decrease. These relationships are influenced by age patterns in epidemiological parameters. Not only the shift in the age distribution, but also the induced changes in the household structures are important to consider when assessing the potential impact of population ageing on the transmission and burden of emerging respiratory infections.
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