Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37936006›Full record

ArticleEndocrine2024

Predictive model for the progression of inactive thyroid eye disease: a retrospective study.

Lingzi Qi, Xuefei Song, Yinwei Li, Jing Sun, Huifang Zhou, Xianqun Fan

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Article in Endocrine, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Lingzi Qi *Department of Ophthalmology, Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200025, China.
Xuefei Song *Department of Ophthalmology, Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200025, China.
Yinwei LiDepartment of Ophthalmology, Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200025, China.
Jing SunDepartment of Ophthalmology, Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200025, China.
Huifang ZhouDepartment of Ophthalmology, Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200025, China. fangzzfang@sjtu.edu.cn.
Xianqun FanDepartment of Ophthalmology, Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200025, China. fanxq@sjtu.edu.cn.

Funding

Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai 20DZ22708
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeThis study aimed to develop a model for predicting the progression of inactive thyroid eye disease (TED).

methodsWe retrospectively analyzed 107 patients with inactive TED, who did not receive any TED treatment during the follow-up period of 3-6 months. A multivariable regression analysis was employed to examine the clinical risk factors influencing the progress of TED and a predictive model based on risk factors was established.

resultsSeventeen (15.9%) patients had progressed at the last observation. Male (p = 0.024), having smoking history (p = 0.009), compound indicator combined the duration of TED and immunosuppressive treatment history before 3 months (p = 0.026) and more severe diplopia (p = 0.015) were found to be the potential risk factors for progression. Among the subset of patients who exhibited progression, there was a notable escalation in the severity of proptosis (p = 0.021), margin reflex distance-1 (p = 0.031), and clinical activity score (p = 0.011). The multivariable stepwise regression analysis identified positive smoking history as well as untreated and having a duration of TED > 12 months as independent risk factors of TED progression. A predictive model including these risk factors was built, with the AUC (Area Under Curve) score of 0.783.

conclusionsThe predictors of TED progression include smoking history and composite indicators of duration time and treatment history. Our model may provide recommendations for immunosuppressive therapy and prognostic predictions for inactive TED patients preparing for surgery.

Indexed as

Disease ProgressionGraves OphthalmopathyAdultAgedFemaleHumansImmunosuppressive AgentsMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsImmunosuppressive AgentsPredictive modelProgressionRisk factorsThyroid eye disease

Identifiers

PMID37936006

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