ArticleScientific reports2023
Development and validation of a prognostic model of survival for classic heatstroke patients: a multicenter study.
Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- Development and external validation of a machine learning-based Cox model for predicting in-hospital survival in classic heatstroke: a multicenter retrospective study.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Global Warming and the Elderly: A Socio-Ecological Framework.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Review
- A New Paradigm for Precision Medicine in Heatstroke: From Molecular Subtyping to Targeted Prevention and Treatment.Journal of inflammation research · 2026Review
- Article
- Analysis of clinical characteristics and risk factors for patients with heat stroke in western China in 2022: a multicenter retrospective study.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- Targeting c-Jun orchestrates heat stroke-induced myocardial injury and reveals its biomarker potential.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
12 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Classic heatstroke (CHS) is a life-threatening illness characterized by extreme hyperthermia, dysfunction of the central nervous system and multiorgan failure. Accurate predictive models are useful in the treatment decision-making process and risk stratification. This study was to develop and externally validate a prediction model of survival for hospitalized patients with CHS. In this retrospective study, we enrolled patients with CHS who were hospitalized from June 2022 to September 2022 at 3 hospitals in Southwest Sichuan (training cohort) and 1 hospital in Central Sichuan (external validation cohort). Prognostic factors were identified utilizing least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis and multivariate Cox regression analysis in the training cohort. A predictive model was developed based on identified prognostic factors, and a nomogram was built for visualization. The areas under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves (AUCs) and the calibration curve were utilized to assess the prognostic performance of the model in both the training and external validation cohorts. The Kaplan‒Meier method was used to calculate survival rates. A total of 225 patients (median age, 74 [68-80] years) were included. Social isolation, self-care ability, comorbidities, body temperature, heart rate, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), procalcitonin (PCT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and diarrhea were found to have a significant or near-significant association with worse prognosis among hospitalized CHS patients. The AUCs of the model in the training and validation cohorts were 0.994 (95% [CI], 0.975-0.999) and 0.901 (95% [CI], 0.769-0.968), respectively. The model's prediction and actual observation demonstrated strong concordance on the calibration curve regarding 7-day survival probability. According to K‒M survival plots, there were significant differences in survival between the low-risk and high-risk groups in the training and external validation cohorts. We designed and externally validated a prognostic prediction model for CHS. This model has promising predictive performance and could be applied in clinical practice for managing patients with CHS.
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