ArticleBMJ global health2023
A combination of annual and nonannual forces drive respiratory disease in the tropics.
Article in BMJ global health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Noisy periodicity in tropical respiratory disease dynamics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Analysis and prediction of the incidence temporal trends of echinococcosis in China from 2010 to 2021.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Improving influenza forecast in the tropics and subtropics: a case study of Hong Kong.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- A combination of annual and nonannual forces drive respiratory disease in the tropics.BMJ global health · 2023Article
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Abstract
introductionIt is well known that influenza and other respiratory viruses are wintertime-seasonal in temperate regions. However, respiratory disease seasonality in the tropics is less well understood. In this study, we aimed to characterise the seasonality of influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza virus in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
methodsWe monitored the daily number of ILI patients in 89 outpatient clinics from January 2010 to December 2019. We collected nasal swabs and tested for influenza from a subset of clinics from May 2012 to December 2019. We used spectral analysis to describe the periodic signals in the system. We evaluated the contribution of these periodic signals to predicting ILI and influenza patterns through lognormal and gamma hurdle models.
resultsDuring 10 years of community surveillance, 66 799 ILI reports were collected covering 2.9 million patient visits; 2604 nasal swabs were collected, 559 of which were PCR-positive for influenza virus. Both annual and nonannual cycles were detected in the ILI time series, with the annual cycle showing 8.9% lower ILI activity (95% CI 8.8% to 9.0%) from February 24 to May 15. Nonannual cycles had substantial explanatory power for ILI trends (ΔAIC=183) compared with all annual covariates (ΔAIC=263) in lognormal regression. Near-annual signals were observed for PCR-confirmed influenza but were not consistent over time or across influenza (sub)types. The explanatory power of climate factors for ILI and influenza virus trends was weak.
conclusionOur study reveals a unique pattern of respiratory disease dynamics in a tropical setting influenced by both annual and nonannual drivers, with influenza dynamics showing near-annual periodicities. Timing of vaccination campaigns and hospital capacity planning may require a complex forecasting approach.
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