ArticleFrontiers in public health2023
Trends, influencing factors and prediction analysis of under-five and maternal mortality rates in China from 1991 to 2020.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Analysis of under-five mortality rate and healthcare utilization equity in Hunan Province, China, 2020-2024.Preventive medicine reports · 2026Article
- Reducing urban-rural disparities in maternal and child mortality in China: a 33-year analysis and projection to 2030.Journal of global health · 2026Article
- Stability and compatibility of phentolamine mesylate combined with furosemide in common infusion solutions for pediatric critical care.Frontiers in pediatrics · 2026Article
- Temporal trend and influencing factors of high-risk pregnancy in China: a nationwide longitudinal analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Trends in maternal mortality in China and Hainan Province: an analysis based on GBD 2023 and Hainan surveillance data.Frontiers in global women's health · 2026Article
- Cesarean delivery on child health and development in Japanese nationwide birth cohort.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal disparities in maternal mortality and the role of multiscale administrative levels: a 20-year study across Chinese counties.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Review
- Trends in under-five mortality rate in China, 1996-2020: a Joinpoint regression and correlation analysis.BMJ open · 2024Observational
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Introduction: Under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and maternal mortality rate (MMR) are important indicators for evaluating the quality of perinatal health and child health services in a country or region, and are research priorities for promoting maternal and infant safety and maternal and child health. This paper aimed to analysis and predict the trends of U5MR and MMR in China, to explore the impact of social health services and economic factors on U5MR and MMR, and to provide a basis for relevant departments to formulate relevant policies and measures. Methods: The JoinPoint regression model was established to conduct time trend analysis and describe the trend of neonatal mortality rate (NMR), infant mortality rate (IMR), U5MR and MMR in China from 1991 to 2020. The linear mixed effect model was used to assess the fixed effects of maternal health care services and socioeconomic factors on U5MR and MMR were explored, with year as a random effect to minimize the effect of collinearity. Auto regressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) were built to predict U5MR and MMR from 2021 to 2025. Results: The NMR, IMR, U5MR and MMR from 1991 to 2020 in China among national, urban and rural areas showed continuous downward trends. The NMR, IMR, U5MR and MMR were significantly negatively correlated with gross domestic product (GDP), the proportion of the total health expenditure (THE) to GDP, system management rate, prenatal care rate, post-natal visit rate and hospital delivery rate. The predicted values of national U5MR from 2021 to 2025 were 7.3 ‰, 7.2 ‰, 7.1 ‰, 7.1 ‰ and 7.2 ‰ and the predicted values of national MMR were 13.8/100000, 12.1/100000, 10.6/100000, 9.6/100000 and 8.3/100000. Conclusion: China has made great achievements in reducing the U5MR and MMR. It is necessary for achieving the goals of Healthy China 2030 by promoting the equalization of basic public health services and further optimizing the allocation of government health resources. China's experience in reducing U5MR and MMR can be used as a reference for developing countries to realize the SDGs.
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