ArticleEnvironmental health and preventive medicine2023
Predicting pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in China using Baidu search index: an ARIMAX model approach.
Article in Environmental health and preventive medicine, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Predicting the incidence of syphilis in China using Baidu search index and an ARIMAX model.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- An ARIMAX model integrating Baidu index for improved hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence prediction.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- An optimization protocol for MRI examination resource allocation based on demand forecasting and linear programming.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Public interest in online searching of asthma information: insights from a Google trends analysis.BMC pulmonary medicine · 2025Article
- From COVID-19 to monkeypox: a novel predictive model for emerging infectious diseases.BioData mining · 2024Article
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11 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundExisting researches have established a correlation between internet search data and the epidemics of numerous infectious diseases. This study aims to develop a prediction model to explore the relationship between the Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) epidemic trend in China and the Baidu search index.
methodsCollect the number of new cases of PTB in China from January 2011 to August 2022. Use Spearman rank correlation and interaction analysis to identify Baidu keywords related to PTB and construct a PTB comprehensive search index. Evaluate the predictive performance of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and ARIMA with explanatory variable (ARIMAX) models for the number of PTB cases.
resultsIncidence of PTB had shown a fluctuating downward trend. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient between the PTB comprehensive search index and its incidence was 0.834 (P < 0.001). The ARIMA model had an AIC value of 2804.41, and the MAPE value was 13.19%. The ARIMAX model incorporating the Baidu index demonstrated an AIC value of 2761.58 and a MAPE value of 5.33%.
conclusionsThe ARIMAX model is superior to ARIMA in terms of fitting and predicting accuracy. Additionally, the use of Baidu Index has proven to be effective in predicting cases of PTB.
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