Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37923787›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2023

Long-term association of ultra-short heart rate variability with cardiovascular events.

Michele Orini, Stefan van Duijvenboden, William J Young, Julia Ramírez, Aled R Jones, Alun D Hughes, Andrew Tinker, Patricia B Munroe, Pier D Lambiase

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
34citing papers in PubMed
8.3field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

34 citing papers in PubMed, 38 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Trial
  2. A reporting checklist for human and animal heart rate variability research.Pflugers Archiv : European journal of physiology · 2026
    Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Review
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  9. Heart rate variability provides prognostic value in multiple system atrophy.Clinical autonomic research : official journal of the Clinical Autonomic Research Society · 2026
    Article
  10. Review
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  17. Association between ultra-short heart rate variability and risk of Parkinson's disease: a prospective cohort study.The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · 2025
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.

Michele OriniInstitute of Cardiovascular Science, University College London, 1-19 Torrington Pl, London, WC1E 7HB, UK. m.orini@ucl.ac.uk.
Stefan van DuijvenbodenInstitute of Cardiovascular Science, University College London, 1-19 Torrington Pl, London, WC1E 7HB, UK.
William J YoungBarts Heart Centre, St Bartholomew's Hospital, London, UK.
Julia RamírezClinical Pharmacology and Precision Medicine, William Harvey Research Institute, Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Aled R JonesClinical Pharmacology and Precision Medicine, William Harvey Research Institute, Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Alun D HughesInstitute of Cardiovascular Science, University College London, 1-19 Torrington Pl, London, WC1E 7HB, UK.
Andrew TinkerClinical Pharmacology and Precision Medicine, William Harvey Research Institute, Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Patricia B MunroeClinical Pharmacology and Precision Medicine, William Harvey Research Institute, Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Pier D LambiaseInstitute of Cardiovascular Science, University College London, 1-19 Torrington Pl, London, WC1E 7HB, UK.
University College London · GBSt Bartholomew's Hospital · GBWilliam Harvey Research Institute · GBQueen Mary University of London · GBUniversidad de Zaragoza · ES

Funding

British Heart Foundation AA/18/6/34223Department of HealthMedical Research Council MC_UU_00019/1Medical Research Council MC_UU_00019/2Medical Research Council MR/N025083/1Medical Research Council MR/R017468/1Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 223100/Z/21/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Heart rate variability (HRV) is a cardiac autonomic marker with predictive value in cardiac patients. Ultra-short HRV (usHRV) can be measured at scale using standard and wearable ECGs, but its association with cardiovascular events in the general population is undetermined. We aimed to validate usHRV measured using ≤ 15-s ECGs (using RMSSD, SDSD and PHF indices) and investigate its association with atrial fibrillation, major adverse cardiac events, stroke and mortality in individuals without cardiovascular disease. In the National Survey for Health and Development (n = 1337 participants), agreement between 15-s and 6-min HRV, assessed with correlation analysis and Bland-Altman plots, was very good for RMSSD and SDSD and good for PHF. In the UK Biobank (n = 51,628 participants, 64% male, median age 58), after a median follow-up of 11.5 (11.4-11.7) years, incidence of outcomes ranged between 1.7% and 4.3%. Non-linear Cox regression analysis showed that reduced usHRV from 15-, 10- and 5-s ECGs was associated with all outcomes. Individuals with low usHRV (< 20th percentile) had hazard ratios for outcomes between 1.16 and 1.29, p < 0.05, with respect to the reference group. In conclusion, usHRV from ≤ 15-s ECGs correlates with standard short-term HRV and predicts increased risk of cardiovascular events in a large population-representative cohort.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesElectrocardiographyAutonomic Nervous SystemFemaleHeart RateHumansMaleMiddle AgedProportional Hazards Models

Identifiers

PMID37923787
PMCPMC10624663
OpenAlexW4388303710

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.